Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States.
Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2018.02.003
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发表时间：
2018-09
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Reed C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Biggerstaff M;Johansson M;Alper D;Brooks LC;Chakraborty P;Farrow DC;Hyun S;Kandula S;McGowan C;Ramakrishnan N;Rosenfeld R;Shaman J;Tibshirani R;Tibshirani RJ;Vespignani A;Yang W;Zhang Q;Reed C
准确的预测可以使公共卫生决策更加知情。自2013年以来，CDC一直与外部研究人员合作，通过协调美国和10个卫生和人类服务区的季节性挑战来改善流感预测。2014-15年挑战的预测目标是季节的发病周、高峰周和高峰强度，以及提前1-4周因流感样疾病（ILI）而就诊的每周百分比。我们使用对数评分规则对每周的预测进行评分，在评估期内对分数进行平均，然后对得到的对数分数取幂。糟糕的预测得分接近0，完美的预测得分为1。五个团队提交了来自七个不同模型的预测。在全国范围内，发病周的团队得分范围为<0.01至0.41，高峰周的得分范围为0.08至0.49，高峰强度的得分范围为<0.01至0.17。提前1-4周预测ILI的得分范围为0.02-0.38，提前1周最高。预测技能因HHS地区而异。预测可以预测流行病的特征，为公共卫生行动提供信息。疾病预防控制中心、州和地方卫生官员以及研究人员正在共同努力改善预测。
Accurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked with external researchers to improve influenza forecasts by coordinating seasonal challenges for the United States and the 10 Health and Human Service Regions. Forecasted targets for the 2014–15 challenge were the onset week, peak week, and peak intensity of the season and the weekly percent of outpatient visits due to influenza-like illness (ILI) 1–4 weeks in advance. We used a logarithmic scoring rule to score the weekly forecasts, averaged the scores over an evaluation period, and then exponentiated the resulting logarithmic score. Poor forecasts had a score near 0, and perfect forecasts a score of 1. Five teams submitted forecasts from seven different models. At the national level, the team scores for onset week ranged from <0.01 to 0.41, peak week ranged from 0.08 to 0.49, and peak intensity ranged from <0.01 to 0.17. The scores for predictions of ILI 1–4 weeks in advance ranged from 0.02–0.38 and was highest 1 week ahead. Forecast skill varied by HHS region. Forecasts can predict epidemic characteristics that inform public health actions. CDC, state and local health officials, and researchers are working together to improve forecasts.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Nsoesie EO;Brownstein JS;Ramakrishnan N;Marathe MV
通讯作者：
Marathe MV
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Tizzoni M;Bajardi P;Poletto C;Ramasco JJ;Balcan D;Gonçalves B;Perra N;Colizza V;Vespignani A
通讯作者：
Vespignani A
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Chretien JP;George D;Shaman J;Chitale RA;McKenzie FE
通讯作者：
McKenzie FE
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Brooks LC;Farrow DC;Hyun S;Tibshirani RJ;Rosenfeld R
通讯作者：
Rosenfeld R
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1208772109
发表时间：
2012-12-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Shaman, Jeffrey;Karspeck, Alicia
通讯作者：
Karspeck, Alicia