A systematic review of studies on forecasting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks.
A systematic review of studies on forecasting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks.
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DOI：
10.1111/irv.12226
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发表时间：
2014-05
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Marathe MV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nsoesie EO;Brownstein JS;Ramakrishnan N;Marathe MV
预测流感爆发的动态可能有助于有关公共卫生资源分配的决策。可靠的预报还有助于选择和实施干预措施，以减少流感疾病造成的发病率和死亡率。本文综述了以往流感爆发期间提出的流感预测方法和事后评估的方法。我们讨论了各种方法，以及预测测量的准确度和精度的可变性。PubMed和b谷歌Scholar搜索有关流感预测的文章，检索到符合研究标准的16项研究。我们关注的是那些旨在预测地方、区域、国家或全球流感爆发的研究。入选的研究范围广泛，包括美国、瑞典、香港、日本、新加坡、英国、加拿大、法国和古巴。该方法也可用于预测单指标或多指标。预测的典型措施包括高峰时间、高峰高度、每日/每周病例数和爆发规模。由于用于评估准确性的测量方法不同，很难对每种测量方法的预测误差进行单一估计。然而，总的来说，结果表明，在可靠的数据和正确的疾病假设的情况下，这些不同的流感预测方法能够以一定程度的准确性捕获特定的爆发措施。尽管如此，需要对其中的一些方法进行评估，并在实时预测中对其性能进行量化。
Forecasting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks could be useful for decision-making regarding the allocation of public health resources. Reliable forecasts could also aid in the selection and implementation of interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality due to influenza illness. This paper reviews methods for influenza forecasting proposed during previous influenza outbreaks and those evaluated in hindsight. We discuss the various approaches, in addition to the variability in measures of accuracy and precision of predicted measures. PubMed and Google Scholar searches for articles on influenza forecasting retrieved sixteen studies that matched the study criteria. We focused on studies that aimed at forecasting influenza outbreaks at the local, regional, national, or global level. The selected studies spanned a wide range of regions including USA, Sweden, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, United Kingdom, Canada, France, and Cuba. The methods were also applied to forecast a single measure or multiple measures. Typical measures predicted included peak timing, peak height, daily/weekly case counts, and outbreak magnitude. Due to differences in measures used to assess accuracy, a single estimate of predictive error for each of the measures was difficult to obtain. However, collectively, the results suggest that these diverse approaches to influenza forecasting are capable of capturing specific outbreak measures with some degree of accuracy given reliable data and correct disease assumptions. Nonetheless, several of these approaches need to be evaluated and their performance quantified in real-time predictions.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hyder A;Buckeridge DL;Leung B
通讯作者：
Leung B
影响因子：
5
作者：
Chao, Dennis L.;Matrajt, Laura;Longini, Ira M., Jr.
通讯作者：
Longini, Ira M., Jr.
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Carrasco LR;Jit M;Chen MI;Lee VJ;Milne GJ;Cook AR
通讯作者：
Cook AR
DOI：
10.1089/bsp.2011.0007
发表时间：
2011-06-01
期刊：
BIOSECURITY AND BIOTERRORISM-BIODEFENSE STRATEGY PRACTICE AND SCIENCE
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lipsitch, Marc;Finelli, Lyn;Redd, Stephen C.
通讯作者：
Redd, Stephen C.
影响因子：
2
作者：
Cauchemez, S;Carrat, F;Boëlle, PY
通讯作者：
Boëlle, PY