Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.
Capability and dependency in the Newcastle 85+ cohort study. Projections of future care needs.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2318-11-21
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发表时间：
2011-05-04
期刊：
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Bond J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jagger C;Collerton JC;Davies K;Kingston A;Robinson LA;Eccles MP;von Zglinicki T;Martin-Ruiz C;James OF;Kirkwood TB;Bond J
最年长的老年人是人口中增长最快的年龄段，人们对他们的能力知之甚少。我们的目标是评估85岁老年人的能力和依赖性，并预测未来的护理需求。在85岁时，对841名出生于1921年、居住在英国纽卡斯尔和北泰恩赛德的人进行了结构化采访，这些人在参与全科医生的永久登记中。能力测量包括日常生活活动自我报告(ADL)、计时起跳试验(TUG)、标准化简易精神状态检查(SMMSE)和尿失禁评估，以对间隔需要依赖进行分类。为了预测未来的护理需求，需要24小时护理的比例适用于按性别分列的2008年英格兰和威尔士80岁及以上人口预测。在参与者中，62%(522/841)是妇女，77%(651/841)住在标准住房，13%(106/841)住在庇护房，10%(84/841)住在养老院。总体而言，20%(165/841)的患者报告任何一种ADL都没有困难。男性在执行ADL方面比女性更有能力，也更独立。TUG验证的自报告ADL。按“需要的间隔”分类时，41%(332/810)是独立的，39%(317/810)需要的帮助少于每天，12%(94/810)需要在一天中的固定时间得到帮助，8%(67/810)需要24小时护理。在养老院居民中，94%(77/82)需要每日帮助或24小时护理。从2010年到2030年，英格兰和威尔士未来对80岁或以上老年人的24小时护理需求预计将增加82%，到2030年将需要630,000个养老院名额。这一分析突出了这一群体的能力和依赖程度的多样性。保持独立的比例相当高，尤其是男性。然而，这些人口中有相当大一部分人需要在家中或在疗养院24小时护理。对未来20年的预测表明，由于人口老龄化，需要24小时护理的人数将大幅增加，除非找到创新的保健和社会护理干预措施，否则对疗养院的需求将相应增加。
Little is known of the capabilities of the oldest old, the fastest growing age group in the population. We aimed to estimate capability and dependency in a cohort of 85 year olds and to project future demand for care. Structured interviews at age 85 with 841 people born in 1921 and living in Newcastle and North Tyneside, UK who were permanently registered with participating general practices. Measures of capability included were self-reported activities of daily living (ADL), timed up and go test (TUG), standardised mini-mental state examination (SMMSE), and assessment of urinary continence in order to classify interval-need dependency. To project future demand for care the proportion needing 24-hour care was applied to the 2008 England and Wales population projections of those aged 80 years and over by gender. Of participants, 62% (522/841) were women, 77% (651/841) lived in standard housing, 13% (106/841) in sheltered housing and 10% (84/841) in a care home. Overall, 20% (165/841) reported no difficulty with any of the ADLs. Men were more capable in performing ADLs and more independent than women. TUG validated self-reported ADLs. When classified by 'interval of need' 41% (332/810) were independent, 39% (317/810) required help less often than daily, 12% (94/810) required help at regular times of the day and 8% (67/810) required 24-hour care. Of care-home residents, 94% (77/82) required daily help or 24-hour care. Future need for 24-hour care for people aged 80 years or over in England and Wales is projected to increase by 82% from 2010 to 2030 with a demand for 630,000 care-home places by 2030. This analysis highlights the diversity of capability and levels of dependency in this cohort. A remarkably high proportion remain independent, particularly men. However a significant proportion of this population require 24-hour care at home or in care homes. Projections for the next 20 years suggest substantial increases in the number requiring 24-hour care due to population ageing and a proportionate increase in demand for care-home places unless innovative health and social care interventions are found.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Christensen, Kaare;Doblhammer, Gabriele;Rau, Roland;Vaupel, James W.
通讯作者：
Vaupel, James W.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0804931105
发表时间：
2008-09-09
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Christensen, Kaare;McGue, Matt;Vaupel, James W.
通讯作者：
Vaupel, James W.
影响因子：
7
作者：
Molloy, D W;Standish, T I
通讯作者：
Standish, T I
影响因子：
7.2
作者：
Deeg, DJH
通讯作者：
Deeg, DJH
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Newman AB;Arnold AM;Sachs MC;Ives DG;Cushman M;Strotmeyer ES;Ding J;Kritchevsky SB;Chaves PH;Fried LP;Robbins J
通讯作者：
Robbins J