Learning versus habit formation: Optimal timing of lockdown for disease containment.
Learning versus habit formation: Optimal timing of lockdown for disease containment.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmateco.2020.11.008
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Roy J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bandyopadhyay S;Chatterjee K;Das K;Roy J
我们分析了一个模型，在这个模型中，政府必须决定是否在一个国家实施封锁，以防止可能致命的疾病的传播。如果政府决定实施封锁，必须确定封锁的强度、时间和持续时间。我们发现有两种相互竞争的影响将决策推向相反的方向。早期封锁不仅有利于减缓疾病的传播，而且有利于形成有益的习惯（如保持社交距离、养成卫生习惯），即使在封锁解除后，这些习惯也会持续存在。与早期封锁的好处相反，除了对经济造成直接损失外，还会损失有关该疾病在人群中的毒性和传播的信息。基于疾病具有毒性的先验概率，我们用上述权衡来表征封锁的时间、强度和持续时间。具体来说，我们表明，随着学习精度的提高，政府往往会推迟实施封锁。相反，如果习惯形成参数非常强，政府可能会提前实施封锁。
We analyze a model where the government has to decide whether to impose a lockdown in a country to prevent the spread of a possibly virulent disease. If the government decides to impose a lockdown, it has to determine its intensity, timing and duration. We find that there are two competing effects that push the decision in opposite directions. An early lockdown is beneficial not only to slow down the spread of the disease, but creates beneficial habit formation (such as social distancing, developing hygienic habits) that persists even after the lockdown is lifted. Against this benefit of an early lockdown, there is a cost from loss of information about the virulence and spread of the disease in the population in addition to a direct cost to the economy. Based on the prior probability of the disease being virulent, we characterize the timing, intensity and duration of a lockdown with the above mentioned tradeoffs. Specifically, we show that as the precision of learning goes up, a government tends to delay the imposition of lockdown. Conversely, if the habit formation parameter is very strong, a government is likely to impose an early lockdown.
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影响因子：
6.8
作者：
Susskind, Daniel;Vines, David
通讯作者：
Vines, David
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Goenka, Aditya;Liu, Lin
通讯作者：
Liu, Lin
影响因子：
1.5
作者：
Gollier, Christian
通讯作者：
Gollier, Christian
影响因子：
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作者：
Geoffard, PY;Philipson, T
通讯作者：
Philipson, T
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG