Future of testicular germ cell tumor incidence in the United States: Forecast through 2026.
Future of testicular germ cell tumor incidence in the United States: Forecast through 2026.
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DOI：
10.1002/cncr.30597
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发表时间：
2017-06-15
期刊：
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
McGlynn KA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ghazarian AA;Kelly SP;Altekruse SF;Rosenberg PS;McGlynn KA
睾丸生殖细胞肿瘤(TGCT)是普通人群中罕见的肿瘤，但在美国15岁至44岁的男性中是最常见的恶性肿瘤。虽然非西班牙裔白人(NHW)在美国的发病率最高，但拉美裔白人的发病率近年来增长最快。为了预测未来这些发病率可能是多少，我们在监测、流行病学和最终结果计划以及国家癌症登记计划中对TGCT的发病率进行了分析。1999-2012年15-59岁人群TGCT发病率数据来自美国39个癌症登记处。使用年龄-时期-队列模型预测到2026年的发病率，按种族/民族、组织学(精原细胞瘤、非精原细胞瘤)和年龄分层。1999至2012年间，从总体和组织学角度来看，卫生保健工作者的TGCT发病率最高，其次是西班牙裔、亚洲/太平洋岛民和非西班牙裔黑人。2013至2026年间，拉美裔美国人的比率预计将以每年3.96%的速度增长(95%可信区间：3.88-4.03)，是所有种族/民族中增长速度最快的。到2026年，由于精原细胞瘤和非精原细胞瘤的增加，美国最高的TGCT发生率将出现在西班牙裔中。卫生工作者的发病率将略有上升，而其他群体的发病率将略有下降。到2026年，由于最近出生的队列中发病率上升，拉美裔人的TGCT比率将是美国所有种族/民族中最高的。年轻拉美裔美国人增加的原因值得进一步探讨。
Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are rare tumors in the general population but are the most commonly occurring malignancy among men between ages 15 and 44 years in the United States (US). While non-Hispanic whites (NHW) have the highest incidence in the US, rates among Hispanics have shown the greatest increase in recent years. To forecast what these incidence rates may be in the future, an analysis of TGCT incidence in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, and National Program of Cancer Registries was conducted. TGCT incidence data among 15–59 year olds for the years 1999–2012 were obtained from 39 US cancer registries. Incidence rates through 2026 were forecast using age-period-cohort models, stratifying by race/ethnicity, histology (seminoma, nonseminoma), and age. Between 1999 and 2012, TGCT incidence rates, overall and by histology, were highest among NHWs, followed by Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and non-Hispanic blacks. Between 2013 and 2026, rates among Hispanics were forecast to increase by 3.96% (95% Confidence Interval: 3.88–4.03) annually, the highest rate of increase of any racial/ethnic group. By 2026, the highest TGCT rates in the US will be among Hispanics, due to increases in both seminoma and nonseminoma. Rates among NHWs will increase slightly, while rates among other groups will decrease slightly. By 2026, Hispanics will have the highest rate of TGCT of any racial/ethnic group in the US due to the rising incidence among recent birth cohorts. Reasons for the increase in younger Hispanics merit further exploration.
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
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