On improving storm surge forecasting using an adjoint optimal technique

On improving storm surge forecasting using an adjoint optimal technique
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使用伴随优化技术改进风暴潮预报

DOI:
10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.08.009
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发表时间:
2013-12
期刊:
影响因子:
3.2
通讯作者:
Lian Xie
Lian Xie
中科院分区:
地球科学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Yineng Li;Shiqiu Peng;Jing Yan;Lian Xie

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利用三维海洋模式及其伴随模式,同时优化初始条件(IC)和风应力阻力系数(CD),以改进风暴潮预报。为了验证该方法的有效性,进行了一系列具有不同误差源的同卵双生试验(TITES)和两个实际资料同化试验。理想化资料同化试验和实际资料同化试验的结果都表明,同时调整Ic和Cd比只调整Ic或Cd对风暴潮预报的改善要大得多。动态平衡诊断表明,仅调整Ic可能会引起不现实的同化窗外振荡,而同时调整Ic和Cd时,风应力的调整可以抑制这种振荡。因此,建议同时调整Ic和Cd,以提高风暴潮预报的伴随技术。
A three-dimensional ocean model and its adjoint model are used to simultaneously optimize the initial conditions (IC) and the wind stress drag coefficient (Cd) for improving storm surge forecasting. To demonstrate the effect of this proposed method, a number of identical twin experiments (ITEs) with a prescription of different error sources and two real data assimilation experiments are performed. Results from both the idealized and real data assimilation experiments show that adjusting IC andCdsimultaneously can achieve much more improvements in storm surge forecasting than adjusting IC orCdonly. A diagnosis on the dynamical balance indicates that adjusting IC only may introduce unrealistic oscillations out of the assimilation window, which can be suppressed by the adjustment of the wind stress when simultaneously adjusting IC andCd. Therefore, it is recommended to simultaneously adjust IC andCdto improve storm surge forecasting using an adjoint technique.
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