Multi-source forcing effects analysis using Liang–Kleeman information flow method and the community atmosphere model (CAM4.0)
Multi-source forcing effects analysis using Liang–Kleeman information flow method and the community atmosphere model (CAM4.0)
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基于Liang-Kleeman信息流法和群落氛围模型的多源强迫效应分析（CAM4.0）
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-019-04914-x
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发表时间：
2019-11
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
HaoKun Bai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ShunYu Jiang;HaiBo Hu;Ning Zhang;LiPing Lei;HaoKun Bai
为了了解陆地覆盖、海温、海冰和二氧化碳浓度对全球气候的影响，利用大气环流模式4.0设计了敏感性试验，并与观测结果进行了对比。首先，通过Liang-Kleeman信息流方法分析，可以直观地看出这些强迫与气温之间存在明显的因果关系。在数值试验中，温度受降水和大气动力过程的影响。在冬季，各强迫的变化将导致正的太平洋-北美型（PNA）位相，使北美变得更冷。由CO2和海冰变化引起的负的北大西洋涛动（NAO）位相导致欧洲冬季寒冷。这与2018年欧洲和北美的极端寒冷天气相吻合。而在夏季，所有强迫都导致北极涛动（AO）位相为正，导致北方半球最暖。值得注意的是，对于降水而言，各强迫的变化使东亚地区海面到陆地的风增加，可降水量增加，从而降水总体增加。但是，当CO2变化时，由于某些地区缺乏动力条件，降水量减少。
To understand the individual influences of the land cover, sea temperature, sea ice and carbon dioxide concentration on the global climate, sensitive experiments using the General Atmospheric Circulation Model 4.0 are designed to compare with the observation in this study. Firstly, through the analysis of Liang–Kleeman information flow method, it is straightforward that the pronounced causal relationships exist from these forcing to air temperature. In numerical experiments, the temperature is influenced by the albedo and atmospheric dynamic process. More detailed, in winter, the changes of each forcing will cause the positive Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) phase, which makes the North American colder. The negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase caused by the changes of CO2 and sea ice induces cold winter over the Europe. This coincides with the extreme cold weather in Europe and North America in 2018. Whereas in summer, all forcings cause positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase, resulting in the most northern hemisphere warmer. It is noteworthy that for precipitation, the changes of each forcing increase winds from the sea surface to the land in East Asia, so the precipitable water increases, thus the precipitation overall increases. However, when CO2 changes, the precipitation decreases due to the lack of dynamic conditions in some areas.
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