Inferring the Association between the Risk of COVID-19 Case Fatality and N501Y Substitution in SARS-CoV-2.
Inferring the Association between the Risk of COVID-19 Case Fatality and N501Y Substitution in SARS-CoV-2.
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推断 COVID-19 病例死亡风险与 SARS-CoV-2 中 N501Y 替代之间的关联
DOI：
10.3390/v13040638
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发表时间：
2021-04-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wang MH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhao S;Lou J;Chong MKC;Cao L;Zheng H;Chen Z;Chan RWY;Zee BCY;Chan PKS;Wang MH
由于COVID-19对全球健康构成严重威胁，SARS-CoV-2基因组中出现的突变，例如N501 Y替换，是控制大流行的主要挑战之一。描述突变活动与严重临床结局风险之间的关系对于告知医疗保健决策过程具有公共卫生重要性。使用基于可能性的方法，我们开发了一个统计框架来重建时变和变异特异性病死率（CFR），并根据经验估计与单个突变相关的CFR变化。举例而言，统计框架已应用于英国的COVID-19监测数据。重建的瞬时病死率由二零二零年九月的1. 0%逐步上升至二零二零年十一月的2. 2%，其后稳定于此水平，实时监控COVID-19的死亡风险。我们确定了SARS-CoV-2在分子水平上的突变活性与COVID-19在人群水平上的死亡风险之间的联系，并发现501 Y变体可能比之前的501 N变体略微但不显著地增加18%的死亡风险。我们没有发现与501 Y变异相关的COVID-19死亡风险变化的统计学显著证据，并强调了建模框架的实时估计潜力。
As COVID-19 is posing a serious threat to global health, the emerging mutation in SARS-CoV-2 genomes, for example, N501Y substitution, is one of the major challenges against control of the pandemic. Characterizing the relationship between mutation activities and the risk of severe clinical outcomes is of public health importance for informing the healthcare decision-making process. Using a likelihood-based approach, we developed a statistical framework to reconstruct a time-varying and variant-specific case fatality ratio (CFR), and to estimate changes in CFR associated with a single mutation empirically. For illustration, the statistical framework is implemented to the COVID-19 surveillance data in the United Kingdom (UK). The reconstructed instantaneous CFR gradually increased from 1.0% in September to 2.2% in November 2020 and stabilized at this level thereafter, which monitors the mortality risk of COVID-19 on a real-time basis. We identified a link between the SARS-CoV-2 mutation activity at molecular scale and COVID-19 mortality risk at population scale, and found that the 501Y variants may slightly but not significantly increase 18% of fatality risk than the preceding 501N variants. We found no statistically significant evidence of change in COVID-19 mortality risk associated with 501Y variants, and highlighted the real-time estimating potentials of the modelling framework.
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影响因子：
9.5
作者：
Katoh K;Rozewicki J;Yamada KD
通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
DOI：
10.1126/science.abe8499
发表时间：
2020-12-18
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
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作者：
Hou YJ;Chiba S;Halfmann P;Ehre C;Kuroda M;Dinnon KH 3rd;Leist SR;Schäfer A;Nakajima N;Takahashi K;Lee RE;Mascenik TM;Graham R;Edwards CE;Tse LV;Okuda K;Markmann AJ;Bartelt L;de Silva A;Margolis DM;Boucher RC;Randell SH;Suzuki T;Gralinski LE;Kawaoka Y;Baric RS
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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