Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase.
Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
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发表时间：
2020-10-06
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Bi Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang L;Didelot X;Yang J;Wong G;Shi Y;Liu W;Gao GF;Bi Y
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）于2019年底在中国湖北省武汉市首次发现，并在数月内在全球蔓延，引发全球关注。然而，尚不清楚超级传播事件是否发生在疫情早期阶段，就像在其他新出现的病毒中观察到的那样。在这里，我们分析了208个公开的SARS-CoV-2基因组序列收集在早期爆发阶段。我们结合联合收割机系统发育分析与流行病学模型下的贝叶斯推理来追踪人与人之间的传播。在推断的传播链中，后代分布的离散参数估计为0.23（95%CI：0.13-0.38），表明存在直接感染大量人群的个体。我们的研究结果表明，超级传播事件在COVID-19爆发的早期阶段发挥了重要作用。尽管SARS-CoV-2传播迅速，但超级传播事件对传播的贡献尚不清楚。在这里，作者表明，在疫情爆发的早期阶段，由个体感染引起的继发感染的数量是高度倾斜的，这表明发生了超级传播事件。
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13–0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak. Although SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly, the contribution of super-spreading events to transmission is unclear. Here, the authors show that the number of secondary infections arising from an individual infection in the early phase of the outbreak was highly skewed, indicating that super-spreading events occurred.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Huang, Chaolin;Wang, Yeming;Cao, Bin
通讯作者：
Cao, Bin
影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Hoang DT;Chernomor O;von Haeseler A;Minh BQ;Vinh LS
通讯作者：
Vinh LS
影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Martin DP;Murrell B;Golden M;Khoosal A;Muhire B
通讯作者：
Muhire B
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm6915e1
发表时间：
2020-04-17
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ghinai I;Woods S;Ritger KA;McPherson TD;Black SR;Sparrow L;Fricchione MJ;Kerins JL;Pacilli M;Ruestow PS;Arwady MA;Beavers SF;Payne DC;Kirking HL;Layden JE
通讯作者：
Layden JE
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Lloyd-Smith JO;Schreiber SJ;Kopp PE;Getz WM
通讯作者：
Getz WM