Bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and environmental decision making
Bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and environmental decision making
复制标题
弥合生态预测和环境决策之间的鸿沟
DOI：
10.1002/ecs2.3869
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Leroux, Shawn J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bodner, Korryn;Rauen Firkowski, Carina;Bennett, Joseph R.;Brookson, Cole;Dietze, Michael;Green, Stephanie;Hughes, Josie;Kerr, Jeremy;Kunegel‐Lion, Mélodie;Leroux, Shawn J.
人类引起的环境变化的速度继续加快，刺激了对快速和基于科学的决策的需求。最近网络基础设施、开源数据和新技术的可用性增加了使用生态预测来预测环境变化的机会。但是，为了有效地为环境决策提供信息，预测不仅应该可靠，而且还应该旨在满足决策者的需求，并清楚地传达他们的假设，不确定性和结果。为了帮助研究人员更好地将预测整合到决策中，我们概述了十条实用指南，以帮助在社会生态系统中导航预测的跨学科和协作性质。有些准则侧重于提高预测技能，包括如何建立更好的模型，考虑不确定性，并利用技术提高其效用，而另一些准则则是为了促进将预测与决策相结合，包括如何建立有效的伙伴关系，以及如何设计与所处理的具体决策相关的预测。我们希望这些指南能够帮助研究人员使预测更加准确，精确，透明，最紧迫的是，有助于为环境决策提供信息。
The rate of human‐induced environmental change continues to accelerate, stimulating the need for rapid and science‐based decision making. The recent availability of cyberinfrastructure, open‐source data and novel techniques has increased opportunities to use ecological forecasts to predict environmental change. But to effectively inform environmental decision making, forecasts should not only be reliable, but should also be designed to address the needs of decision makers with their assumptions, uncertainties, and results clearly communicated. To help researchers better integrate forecasting into decision making, we outline ten practical guidelines to help navigate the interdisciplinary and collaborative nature of forecasting in social–ecological systems. Some guidelines focus on improving forecasting skills, including how to build better models, account for uncertainties and use technologies to improve their utility, while others are developed to facilitate the integration of forecasts with decision making, including how to form effective partnerships and how to design forecasts relevant to the specific decision being addressed. We hope these guidelines help researchers make forecasts more accurate, precise, transparent, and most pressingly, useful for informing environmental decisions.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Ilin C;Annan-Phan S;Tai XH;Mehra S;Hsiang S;Blumenstock JE
通讯作者：
Blumenstock JE
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
B. Wong;Reham ElMorally;Meggie Copsey;Ellie Highwood;J. Singarayer
通讯作者：
J. Singarayer
影响因子：
16.8
作者：
Feng, Xiao;Park, Daniel S.;Popes, Monica
通讯作者：
Popes, Monica
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1915378117
发表时间：
2020-04-28
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Hofstra, Bas;Kulkarni, Vivek V.;McFarland, Daniel A.
通讯作者：
McFarland, Daniel A.
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Stokols, Daniel;Misra, Shalini;Taylor, Brandie K.
通讯作者：
Taylor, Brandie K.