The risk of a mosquito-borne infection in a heterogeneous environment.
The risk of a mosquito-borne infection in a heterogeneous environment.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.0020368
复制
发表时间：
2004-11
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
McKenzie FE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith DL;Dushoff J;McKenzie FE
关于疟疾、登革热和其他蚊媒传染病的一个普遍假设是，人类感染风险的两个主要组成部分被叮咬的比率（人类叮咬率）和具有传染性的蚊子的比例呈正相关。事实上，这两个风险因素是由不同的过程产生的，在异构环境中，在空间和时间上可能呈负相关。不均匀分布的血餐主机和幼虫栖息地创建一个空间马赛克demograPhic源和汇。此外，蚊子的数量会随着时间的推移而波动，这是由降雨量、温度和湿度等环境变量造成的。蚊子种群分布的空间和时间异质性的这些来源产生了人类叮咬率的变化，具有传染性的蚊子的比例以及人类感染的风险。为了了解异质性如何影响蚊媒感染的流行病学，我们开发了一套简单的模型，以逐步的方式将异质性。这些模型预测，在蚊子密度达到峰值后不久，在成年蚊子出现的繁殖地附近以及人类聚集区域的边缘，人类叮咬率最高。相比之下，具有传染性的蚊子的比例反映了蚊子种群的年龄结构;在发现老蚊子的地方，远离蚊子繁殖栖息地，以及蚊子种群密度下降时，它达到顶峰。最后，我们表明，估计的平均感染风险的基础上，平均昆虫接种率在异质环境中有很大的偏见。一种建模方法表明，将蚊子的人口统计学和行为纳入其中，可以大大改变对疟疾等疾病感染风险的估计
A common assumption about malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne infections is that the two main components of the risk of human infection—the rate at which people are bitten (human biting rate) and the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious—are positively correlated. In fact, these two risk factors are generated by different processes and may be negatively correlated across space and time in heterogeneous environments. Uneven distribution of blood-meal hosts and larval habitat creates a spatial mosaic of demograPhic sources and sinks. Moreover, mosquito populations fluctuate temporally, forced by environmental variables such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity. These sources of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of mosquito populations generate variability in the human biting rate, in the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious, and in the risk of human infection. To understand how heterogeneity affects the epidemiology of mosquito-borne infections, we developed a set of simple models that incorporate heterogeneity in a stepwise fashion. These models predict that the human biting rate is highest shortly after the mosquito densities peak, near breeding sites where adult mosquitoes emerge, and around the edges of areas where humans are aggregated. In contrast, the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious reflects the age structure of mosquito populations; it peaks where old mosquitoes are found, far from mosquito breeding habitat, and when mosquito population density is declining. Finally, we show that estimates for the average risk of infection that are based on the average entomological inoculation rate are strongly biased in heterogeneous environments. A modeling approach reveals that incorporating the demography and behavior of mosquitoes can substantially change estimates of the risk of infection from diseases such as malaria
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.1994.0028
发表时间：
1994-02-28
期刊：
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
影响因子：
--
作者：
DURRETT, R;LEVIN, SA
通讯作者：
LEVIN, SA
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2003.68.177
发表时间：
2003-02-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Konradsen, F;Amerasinghe, P;Piyaratne, M
通讯作者：
Piyaratne, M
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
DURRETT, R;LEVIN, S
通讯作者：
LEVIN, S
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Kitron, U
通讯作者：
Kitron, U
DOI：
10.1016/0035-9203(86)90199-9
发表时间：
1986-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
DYE, C;HASIBEDER, G
通讯作者：
HASIBEDER, G