Comparison of survival analysis approaches to modelling age at first sex among youth in Kisesa Tanzania.
Comparison of survival analysis approaches to modelling age at first sex among youth in Kisesa Tanzania.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0289942
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
许多研究使用描述性生命表来分析性和生殖事件数据。生存分析能更好地估计与首次性行为年龄(AFS)相关的因素，但比例风险模型可能不是正确的模型。本研究使用加速失效时间(AFT)模型、限制平均生存时间模型(RMST)以及半参数和非参数方法来评估首次性别年龄(AFS)、与AFS相关的因素，并验证每个分析的基本假设。1994-2016年间的八项横断面调查使用了15-24岁受访者的自我报告的首次性行为数据，坦桑尼亚西北部的一项观察性社区研究(2019-2020年)使用了青少年调查数据。在每次调查中，使用非参数模型和参数模型估计中位数AFS。使用Cox回归、AFT参数模型(指数、伽玛、广义伽玛、Gompertz、威布尔、对数正态和对数Logistic)和RMST来估计和识别与AFS相关的因素。使用Akaike信息准则(AIC)和贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)对模型进行了比较，其中值越低表示模型的拟合程度越好。结果表明，在每一次调查中，COX回归模型的AIC和BIC均高于其他模型。总体而言，AFT在每一轮调查中都是最合适的。使用参数方法和非参数方法估计的中位数AFS接近。在青春期调查中，LOG-LOGISTIC AFT显示，与男性和报称没有上学的人相比，女性和受过中学和高等教育的人发生第一次性行为的时间更长(时间比分别为1.03；95%CI：1.01~1.06，TR=1.05；95%CI：1.02~1.08)。手机拥有率(tr=0.94，95%CI：0.91-0.96)、饮酒(tr=0.88；95%CI：0.84-0.93)和有工作的青少年(tr=0.95，95%CI：0.92-0.98)缩短了初次性行为的时间。AFT模型比COX-PH模型更能准确估计青年人群的AFS。
Many studies analyze sexual and reproductive event data using descriptive life tables. Survival analysis has better power to estimate factors associated with age at first sex (AFS), but proportional hazards models may not be right model to use. This study used accelerated failure time (AFT) models, restricted Mean Survival time model (RMST) models, with semi and non-parametric methods to assess age at first sex (AFS), factors associated with AFS, and verify underlying assumptions for each analysis. Self-reported sexual debut data was used from respondents 15–24 years in eight cross-sectional surveys between 1994–2016, and from adolescents’ survey in an observational community study (2019–2020) in northwest Tanzania. Median AFS was estimated in each survey using non-parametric and parametric models. Cox regression, AFT parametric models (exponential, gamma, generalized gamma, Gompertz, Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic), and RMST were used to estimate and identify factors associated with AFS. The models were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), where lower values represent a better model fit. The results showed that in every survey, the Cox regression model had higher AIC and BIC compared to the other models. Overall, AFT had the best fit in every survey round. The estimated median AFS using the parametric and non-parametric methods were close. In the adolescent survey, log-logistic AFT showed that females and those attending secondary and higher education level had a longer time to first sex (Time ratio (TR) = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01–1.06, TR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02–1.08, respectively) compared to males and those who reported not being in school. Cell phone ownership (TR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91–0.96), alcohol consumption (TR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84–0.93), and employed adolescents (TR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92–0.98) shortened time to first sex. The AFT model is better than Cox PH model in estimating AFS among the young population.
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DOI：
10.2307/2648300
发表时间：
2000-09-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL FAMILY PLANNING PERSPECTIVES
影响因子：
--
作者：
Rwenge, M
通讯作者：
Rwenge, M
影响因子：
8
作者：
Rice, Eric;Gibbs, Jeremy;Kordic, Timothy
通讯作者：
Kordic, Timothy
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Morojele, NK;Kachieng'a, MA;Saxena, S
通讯作者：
Saxena, S
DOI：
10.2989/16085900509490335
发表时间：
2005-05-01
期刊：
African journal of AIDS research : AJAR
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bakilana, Anne
通讯作者：
Bakilana, Anne
在癌症期刊上发表的生存分析的综述。
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Altman, D G;De Stavola, B L;Love, S B;Stepniewska, K A
通讯作者：
Stepniewska, K A