Impact of COVID-19 national lockdown on asthma exacerbations: interrupted time-series analysis of English primary care data.

Impact of COVID-19 national lockdown on asthma exacerbations: interrupted time-series analysis of English primary care data.
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DOI:
10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216512
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发表时间:
2021-09
期刊:
影响因子:
10
通讯作者:
Sheikh A
Sheikh A
中科院分区:
医学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Shah SA;Quint JK;Nwaru BI;Sheikh A

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COVID-19和随后的全国封锁对哮喘急性发作的影响尚不清楚。我们对哮喘队列进行了中断时间序列(2020年3月23日锁定为中断点)分析,该队列使用来自国家级初级保健数据库(最佳患者护理数据库)的经验证算法进行识别。我们得出了每周的哮喘急性发作率,并比较了2020年1月至8月与2019冠状病毒病前时期以及2016年1月至8月至2019年期间的急性发作率。急性发作定义为哮喘相关住院(包括意外和急诊访视),或口服皮质类固醇的急性病程伴呼吸系统检查证据,如初级保健所记录。我们使用了广义最小二乘建模方法,并按年龄、性别、英国地区和医疗环境对分析进行分层。在9949387例患者的数据库中,有100165例哮喘患者在2016-2020年期间至少发生过一次急性发作。在278996次急性加重发作中,49938次(17.9%)需要住院访视。比较封锁前和封锁后,我们观察到所有患者的急性发作率水平在统计学上显著降低(-0.196次发作/人-年; p<0.001;每100名哮喘患者每年约有20次发作)。分层分析中的水平降低为:0.005-0.244(医疗保健环境,仅无住院/入院的患者具有显著性),0.210-0.277(性别),0.159-0.367(年龄),0.068-0.590(地区)。在大流行期间,因哮喘急性发作而到初级保健机构就诊的人数显著减少。在英格兰的所有年龄组、性别和大部分地区都观察到这种减少。
The impact of COVID-19 and ensuing national lockdown on asthma exacerbations is unclear. We conducted an interrupted time-series (lockdown on 23 March 2020 as point of interruption) analysis in asthma cohort identified using a validated algorithm from a national-level primary care database, the Optimum Patient Care Database. We derived asthma exacerbation rates for every week and compared exacerbation rates in the period: January to August 2020 with a pre-COVID-19 period and January to August 2016–2019. Exacerbations were defined as asthma-related hospital attendance/admission (including accident and emergency visit), or an acute course of oral corticosteroids with evidence of respiratory review, as recorded in primary care. We used a generalised least squares modelling approach and stratified the analyses by age, sex, English region and healthcare setting. From a database of 9 949 387 patients, there were 100 165 patients with asthma who experienced at least one exacerbation during 2016–2020. Of 278 996 exacerbation episodes, 49 938 (17.9%) required hospital visit. Comparing pre-lockdown to post-lockdown period, we observed a statistically significant reduction in the level (−0.196 episodes per person-year; p<0.001; almost 20 episodes for every 100 patients with asthma per year) of exacerbation rates across all patients. The reductions in level in stratified analyses were: 0.005–0.244 (healthcare setting, only those without hospital attendance/admission were significant), 0.210–0.277 (sex), 0.159–0.367 (age), 0.068–0.590 (region). There has been a significant reduction in attendance to primary care for asthma exacerbations during the pandemic. This reduction was observed in all age groups, both sexes and across most regions in England.
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