Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption
复制标题
莫克兰地区海啸灾害概率评估，重点关注最大震级假设
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Zamora
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Hoechner;A. Babeyko;N. Zamora
抽象的。尽管过去几十年来地震相当平静，但马克兰俯冲带仍有能力发生破坏性地震和海啸。特别是1945年著名的逆冲事件（俾路支省地震），导致约4000人伤亡。如今，沿海地区人口更加密集，容易受到类似事件的影响。此外，最近的一些出版物讨论了可能发生在马克兰俯冲带的罕见但明显更大的事件。我们分析了仪器和历史地震活动在俯冲板块界面，并产生各种合成地震目录跨越30万年不同的震级-频率关系。对于目录中的每个事件，我们计算估计的海啸高度，并以概率海啸危险曲线的形式沿沿着巴基斯坦、伊朗和阿曼海岸呈现由此产生的海啸危险。我们展示了如何危害的结果取决于古腾堡-里希特参数的变化，特别是最大震级假设。
Abstract. Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg–Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.
莫克兰俯冲带的热结构和巨型逆冲孕震潜力
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Smith G
通讯作者：
Smith G