Projected US Urology Workforce per Capita, 2020-2060.
Projected US Urology Workforce per Capita, 2020-2060.
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DOI：
10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.33864
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发表时间：
2021-11-01
影响因子：
13.8
通讯作者：
Herrel LA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nam CS;Daignault-Newton S;Kraft KH;Herrel LA
预计到2060年，美国人均泌尿外科劳动力的规模和人口特征是什么？在这项横断面研究中，基于美国泌尿外科协会2019年年度人口普查数据和美国人口普查局的预测，对泌尿外科劳动力的持续(13.8%)和停滞(0%)增长的2个存量和流动模型表明，在即将到来的泌尿外科劳动力短缺的背景下，65岁及以上人口的人均泌尿外科医生总数将被夸大地短缺。这些发现强调了结构改革和宣传的必要性，以增加可用的泌尿外科劳动力。这项横断面研究使用2个存量和流动模型来预测到2060年的人均泌尿外科劳动力的规模和人口特征，并预测即将到来的泌尿外科劳动力短缺的时间和程度。到2035年的预测表明，人们对泌尿外科劳动力短缺的恶化感到担忧。预测到2060年的人均泌尿外科劳动力的规模和人口特征，并预测即将到来的泌尿外科劳动力短缺的时间和程度。这项基于人群的横断面研究使用了2019年美国泌尿外科协会年度人口普查数据和2007年至2018年美国医学研究生教育认证委员会的数据资源手册。这一队列包括2019年的执业泌尿科医生。美国人口普查数据被用来估计预计的美国人口。数据分析从2020年6月至2021年3月进行。13.8%的持续增长存量和流动模型以及引入的泌尿外科劳动力增长0%的停滞增长模型，并对每个预计的美国人口进行队列预测。主要结果是65岁及以上人口的泌尿外科劳动力预测。泌尿外科劳动力预测人均和人口特征的泌尿外科劳动力到2060年是在指导假设下计算的2个存量和流动模型。2019年，共有13名 044名泌尿科医生(11名 758名男性[90.1%]；1,286名女性[9.9%]；年龄中位数为55-59岁)，每10万名 000人中有3.99名泌尿科医生，有311名新加入劳动力大军。在持续增长模式中，2030年的人均泌尿科医生数量将最低，为每10万 000人拥有3.3名泌尿科医生，到2050年将恢复到基线水平。到2020年，每10万名65岁及以上的 人口中有23.8名泌尿科医生，到2035年，每10万名65岁及以上的人口中有15.8名泌尿科医生，到2060年再也无法恢复到其基线水平。在停滞不前的增长模式下，到2060年，人均泌尿科医生将继续减少到每10万 000人中有3.1名泌尿科医生。在每个时间点，人均泌尿科医生的数量都在继续减少，到2060年，每10万 ，000名65岁及以上的人中将有13.1%的泌尿科医生。随着泌尿外科劳动力短缺的迫在眉睫，在这两种模式下，65岁及以上的人均泌尿外科医生总数将被夸大地短缺。这一预测强调了结构改革和宣传的必要性，以最大限度地增加可用的泌尿外科劳动力。
What are the projected size and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce per capita in the US through 2060? In this cross-sectional study, 2 stock and flow models of continued (13.8%) and stagnant (0%) growth of the urology workforce based on the American Urological Association Annual Census data in 2019 and the US Census Bureau’s projections showed that within the context of the impending urology workforce shortage, there will be an exaggerated shortage of total urologists per capita for populations aged 65 years and older. These findings highlight the need for structural changes and advocacy to increase the available urology workforce. This cross-sectional study uses 2 stock and flow models to project the size and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce per capita through 2060 and to anticipate the timing and degree of the impending urology workforce shortage. Projections to 2035 have demonstrated concern regarding a worsening urology workforce shortage. To project the size and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce per capita into 2060 and to anticipate the timing and degree of the impending urology workforce shortage. This population-based cross-sectional study used the 2019 American Urological Association Annual Census data and the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education’s Data Resource Book from 2007 to 2018. The cohort included practicing urologists in 2019. US Census data were used to approximate the projected US population. Data analysis was performed from June 2020 to March 2021. Continued growth stock and flow model of 13.8% and stagnant growth model of 0% increase of the incoming urology workforce with cohort projection per projected US population. The primary outcome was urology workforce projection per the population aged 65 years and older. Urology workforce projections per capita and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce up to 2060 were calculated under guided assumptions with 2 stock and flow models. In 2019, there were 13 044 urologists (11 758 men [90.1.%]; 1286 women [9.9%]; median age range, 55-59 years), with 3.99 urologists per 100 000 persons and 311 new urologists entering the workforce. In a continued growth model, 2030 will have the lowest number of urologists per capita of 3.3 urologists per 100 000 persons, and recovery to baseline will occur by 2050. There are 23.8 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older in 2020, which decreases to 15.8 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older in 2035 and never recovers to its baseline level by 2060. In a stagnant growth model, there will be a continued decrease of urologists per capita to 3.1 urologists per 100 000 persons by 2060. There is a continued decrease in per capita urologists at each time point, with 13.1 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older by 2060. With the impending urology workforce shortage, there will be an exaggerated shortage of total urologists per persons aged 65 years and older in both models. This projection highlights the need for structural changes and advocacy to maximize the available urology workforce.
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影响因子：
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