Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models
Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models
复制标题
来自观测和模型的长期地表 pCO2 趋势
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Heinze
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Tjiputra;A. Olsen;L. Bopp;A. Lenton;B. Pfeil;T. Roy;J. Segschneider;I. Totterdell;C. Heinze
我们使用过去四十年收集的所有可用的正在进行的和瓶装的海洋地球化学数据来估计区域长期表层海洋pCO 2增长率。这些观察到的区域趋势进行了比较的五个国家的最先进的地球系统模型在历史时期的模拟。海洋pCO 2的增长率快于大气增长率表明大气CO2吸收量减少，而海洋pCO 2的增长率慢于大气增长率表明大气CO2吸收量增加。除了西部副极地北太平洋和副热带北大西洋，我们的分析表明，目前基于观测的流域尺度趋势可能被低估，这表明需要更多的观测来确定这些地区的趋势。令人鼓舞的是，良好的协议之间的模拟和观察到的二氧化碳分压的趋势被发现时，模拟领域的观测覆盖面进行二次抽样。与观察结果一致，我们发现模拟的pCO 2趋势主要与大气碳吸收相关的表面溶解无机碳（DIC）增加有关，部分原因是海面变暖。在RCP8.5未来情景下，DIC仍然是pCO 2趋势的主要驱动因素，SST的相对贡献几乎没有变化。然而，水文循环的变化起着越来越重要的作用。对于当代（1970-2011年），模拟的区域pCO 2趋势低于90%以上海洋的大气增长率。然而，到2100年，超过40%的海洋表面区域的海洋pCO 2趋势高于大气，这意味着大气CO2吸收率降低。预计副极地北大西洋的pCO 2增长率最快，而高纬度南大洋和赤道东太平洋的增长率最弱，仍低于大气pCO 2增长率。我们的工作还强调了持续长期观测战略的重要性和必要性，以继续监测海洋人为CO2汇的变化，并更好地了解可能由此产生的潜在碳循环对气候的反馈。
We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011) period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work also highlights the importance and need for a sustained long-term observing strategy to continue monitoring the change in the ocean anthropogenic CO2 sink and to better understand the potential carbon cycle feedbacks to climate that could arise from it.
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
C. Sabine;S. Hankin;H. Koyuk;D. Bakker;B. Pfeil;A. Olsen;N. Metzl;A. Kozyr;A. Fassbender;A. Manke;J. Malczyk;J. Akl;S. Alin;R. Bellerby;A. Borges;J. Boutin;P. Brown;W. Cai;F. Chavez;A. Chen;C. Cosca;R. Feely;M. González-Dávila;C. Goyet;N. Hardman-Mountford;C. Heinze;M. Hoppema;C. W. Hunt;D. Hydes;M. Ishii;T. Johannessen;R. Key;A. Körtzinger;P. Landschützer;S. Lauvset;N. Lefèvre;A. Lenton;A. Lourantou;L. Merlivat;T. Midorikawa;L. Mintrop;C. Miyazaki;A. Murata;A. Nakadate;Y. Nakano;S. Nakaoka;Y. Nojiri;A. Omar;X. A. Padin;G. Park;K. Paterson;F. F. Pérèz-F.;D. Pierrot;A. Poisson;A. Ríos;J. Salisbury;J. Santana-Casiano;V. Sarma;R. Schlitzer;B. Schneider;U. Schuster;R. Sieger;I. Skjelvan;T. Steinhoff;T. Suzuki;Taro Takahashi;K. Tedesco;M. Telszewski;H. Thomas;B. Tilbrook;D. Vandemark;T. Veness;A. Watson;R. Weiss;C. S. Wong;H. Yoshikawa‐Inoue
通讯作者：
C. Sabine;S. Hankin;H. Koyuk;D. Bakker;B. Pfeil;A. Olsen;N. Metzl;A. Kozyr;A. Fassbender;A. Manke;J. Malczyk;J. Akl;S. Alin;R. Bellerby;A. Borges;J. Boutin;P. Brown;W. Cai;F. Chavez;A. Chen;C. Cosca;R. Feely;M. González-Dávila;C. Goyet;N. Hardman-Mountford;C. Heinze;M. Hoppema;C. W. Hunt;D. Hydes;M. Ishii;T. Johannessen;R. Key;A. Körtzinger;P. Landschützer;S. Lauvset;N. Lefèvre;A. Lenton;A. Lourantou;L. Merlivat;T. Midorikawa;L. Mintrop;C. Miyazaki;A. Murata;A. Nakadate;Y. Nakano;S. Nakaoka;Y. Nojiri;A. Omar;X. A. Padin;G. Park;K. Paterson;F. F. Pérèz-F.;D. Pierrot;A. Poisson;A. Ríos;J. Salisbury;J. Santana-Casiano;V. Sarma;R. Schlitzer;B. Schneider;U. Schuster;R. Sieger;I. Skjelvan;T. Steinhoff;T. Suzuki;Taro Takahashi;K. Tedesco;M. Telszewski;H. Thomas;B. Tilbrook;D. Vandemark;T. Veness;A. Watson;R. Weiss;C. S. Wong;H. Yoshikawa‐Inoue
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Le Quere, C.;Andres, R. J.;Zeng, N.
通讯作者：
Zeng, N.