The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate.
The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14533
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发表时间：
2023-03
期刊：
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Skitmore, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu, Hui;Xiong, Shuaizhou;Zhang, Xiaoling;Liu, Shuzhou;Gu, Lin;Zhu, Yuqi;Xiang, Dongjin;Skitmore, Martin
关键词：
社会接触率影响了COVID-19的传播，更多的社会接触导致更多的传染病例。我们选择了武汉封城后前200天确诊病例最多的18个国家。这是自COVID-19爆发以来，首次使用动态社会接触率来模拟500多天不同限制政策下的疫情。所建立的一般动态模型表明，该流行病的传染概率为12.52%~ 39.39%。社会接触率的几何平均值在18.21%至96.00%之间。发达经济体限制政策的效率是发展中经济体的3.5倍。我们比较了不同疾病预防政策的有效性，并讨论了政策调整频率对各国的影响。建议保持最严格的限制或交替收紧和放松限制，每种限制在最大活动病例中分别平均减少72.45%和79.78%。
The social contact rate has influenced the transmission of COVID-19, with more social contact resulting in more contagion cases. We chose 18 countries with the most confirmed cases in the first 200 days after the Wuhan lockdown. This was the first study using the dynamic social contact rate to simulate the epidemic under diverse restriction policies over 500 days since the COVID-19 outbreak. The developed General Dynamic Model suggested that the probability of contagion ranged from 12.52% to 39.39% in the epidemic. The geometric mean of the social contact rates differed from 18.21% to 96.00% between countries. The restriction policies in developed economies were 3.5 times more efficient than in developing economies. We compare the effectiveness of different policies for disease prevention and discuss the influence of policy adjustment frequency for each country. Maintaining the tightest restriction or alternate tightening and loosening restrictions was recommended, with each having an average 72.45% and 79.78% reduction in maximum active cases, respectively.
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