The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis.
The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100603
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发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
15.1
通讯作者：
Arinaminpathy N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cilloni L;Fu H;Vesga JF;Dowdy D;Pretorius C;Ahmedov S;Nair SA;Mosneaga A;Masini E;Sahu S;Arinaminpathy N
针对新型 SARS-CoV-2 病毒的严格封锁正在扰乱结核病 (TB) 的常规服务。我们试图估计这种干扰对高负担国家结核病负担的潜在长期流行病学影响，以及如何减轻这种负面影响。我们调整了三个高负担国家（印度、肯尼亚和乌克兰）结核病传播的数学模型，将与封锁相关的结核病护理连锁中断纳入其中。预期的干扰程度反映了快速专家磋商的共识。我们模拟了这些干扰对未来五年结核病发病率和死亡率的影响，并考虑了减少这种影响的潜在干预措施。即使是暂时的干扰也可能导致结核病发病率和死亡率的长期增加。如果与封锁相关的中断导致结核病传播暂时减少 50%，我们估计，结核病服务暂停 3 个月，然后用 10 个月恢复正常，将在未来 5 年内导致印度新增 1⋅1900 万结核病病例 (Crl 1⋅06–1⋅33) 和 361,000 例结核病死亡 (CrI 333-394 千)，印度 24,700 人肯尼亚有 16,100-44,700 例结核病例和 12,500 例死亡（8.8-17,800 例），乌克兰有 4,350 例（826-6,540）例结核病例和 1,340 例死亡（815-1,980 例）。这些不利影响的主要原因是封锁期间未发现的结核病的积累。我们展示了一旦放宽限制，如何通过补充性“追赶”结核病病例检测和治疗，在短期内避免结核病负担的长期增加。与封锁相关的中断可能会导致结核病负担长期增加，但通过快速恢复结核病服务以及在限制解除后立即实施有针对性的干预措施，可以减轻这些负面影响。美国国际开发署和遏制结核病伙伴关系
Routine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated. We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact. Even temporary disruptions can cause long-term increases in TB incidence and mortality. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06–1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333–394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100–44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8–17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826–6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815–1,980) in Ukraine. The principal driver of these adverse impacts is the accumulation of undetected TB during a lockdown. We demonstrate how long term increases in TB burden could be averted in the short term through supplementary “catch-up” TB case detection and treatment, once restrictions are eased. Lockdown-related disruptions can cause long-lasting increases in TB burden, but these negative effects can be mitigated with rapid restoration of TB services, and targeted interventions that are implemented as soon as restrictions are lifted. USAID and Stop TB Partnership
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影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Azman AS;Golub JE;Dowdy DW
通讯作者：
Dowdy DW
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Quaife M;van Zandvoort K;Gimma A;Shah K;McCreesh N;Prem K;Barasa E;Mwanga D;Kangwana B;Pinchoff J;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;Edmunds WJ;Jarvis CI;Austrian K
通讯作者：
Austrian K
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Raviglione M;Sulis G
通讯作者：
Sulis G
DOI：
10.1164/rccm.201107-1190oc
发表时间：
2012-05-15
影响因子：
24.7
作者：
Dharmadhikari, Ashwin S.;Mphahlele, Matsie;Nardell, Edward A.
通讯作者：
Nardell, Edward A.
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Alkema, L.;Raftery, A. E.;Brown, T.
通讯作者：
Brown, T.