Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.
Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1491
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Verma, Monika
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.;Hertel, Thomas W.;Scherer, Martin;Verma, Monika
最近的粮价飙升引发了人们的担忧，即气候变化可能会在未来几十年减少粮食产量，从而加剧粮食不安全。然而，商品价格波动也受到其他因素的影响，这些因素可能加剧或缓冲气候变化的影响。本文表明，美国玉米价格波动对近期气候变化的敏感性高于对能源政策影响或农业-能源市场一体化的敏感性，并且生物燃料的存在将对气候变化的敏感性提高了50%以上。气候变化的影响主要是由美国主要玉米种植区严重高温条件的加剧所驱动的，这导致美国玉米价格波动急剧增加，以应对未来30年预计的全球变暖。农业和能源市场的更紧密整合可以缓和气候变化的影响，除非生物燃料的强制要求具有约束力，在这种情况下，玉米价格的波动反而会加剧。然而，尽管对美国玉米价格波动的影响很大，但我们发现对食品价格的影响相对较小。我们的研究结果强调了能源政策、能源-农业联系和气候变化之间相互作用的重要性。
Recent price spikes have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades. However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors, which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
Diffenbaugh NS;Ashfaq M;Scherer M
通讯作者：
Scherer M
影响因子：
12.8
作者：
Beckman, Jayson;Hertel, Thomas;Tyner, Wallace
通讯作者：
Tyner, Wallace
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0906865106
发表时间：
2009-09-15
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Schlenker, Wolfram;Roberts, Michael J.
通讯作者：
Roberts, Michael J.
影响因子：
8
作者：
Pal, Jeremy S.;Giorgi, Filippo;Steiner, Allison L.
通讯作者：
Steiner, Allison L.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Ashfaq, Moetasim;Skinner, Christopher B.;Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
通讯作者：
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.