Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.
Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4
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发表时间：
2018-06-15
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Rolka DB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lin J;Thompson TJ;Cheng YJ;Zhuo X;Zhang P;Gregg E;Rolka DB
在美国，糖尿病患者迅速增加，超出了先前的预测。对未来糖尿病负担的预测需要反映发病率、死亡率和人口统计学的变化。我们应用了最新的数据，对2060年进行了更新的预测。一个动态马尔可夫模型被用来预测美国成年人中诊断糖尿病的患病率，包括年龄、性别和种族（白人、黑人、其他）。发病率和当前流行率来自1985-2014年全国健康访谈调查（NHIS）。相对死亡率来自与国家死亡指数相关的NHIS 2000-2011年随访数据。包括出生、死亡和迁移在内的未来人口估计数来自2014年人口普查预测。预计被诊断为糖尿病的成人人数和百分比将从2014年的2230万（9.1%）增加到2030年的3970万（13.9%），到2060年将增加到6060万（17.9%）。65岁及以上的糖尿病患者数量将从2014年的920万增加到2030年的2100万，到2060年将增加到3520万。所有种族和性别群体的患病率都将增加，黑人女性和男性的糖尿病患病率仍然是最高的，黑人女性和其他种族的女性的相对增幅最大。到2060年，被诊断为糖尿病的美国成年人数量预计将增加近两倍，患病率将增加一倍。我们的估计对于预测卫生服务需求和计划旨在减少未来糖尿病负担的公共卫生项目至关重要。本文的在线版本（10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985–2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000–2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection. The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases. By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes. The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Arterburn DE;Bogart A;Sherwood NE;Sidney S;Coleman KJ;Haneuse S;O'Connor PJ;Theis MK;Campos GM;McCulloch D;Selby J
通讯作者：
Selby J
影响因子：
16.2
作者：
Gregg EW;Cheng YJ;Saydah S;Cowie C;Garfield S;Geiss L;Barker L
通讯作者：
Barker L
影响因子：
16.2
作者：
Narayan, K. M. Venkat;Saaddine, Jinan B.;Geiss, Linda S.
通讯作者：
Geiss, Linda S.
影响因子：
16.2
作者：
King, H;Aubert, RE;Herman, WH
通讯作者：
Herman, WH
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Geiss, Linda S.;Wang, Jing;Gregg, Edward W.
通讯作者：
Gregg, Edward W.