Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth
Railway and road infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative countries: Estimating the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth
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“一带一路”沿线国家铁路和公路基础设施：评估交通基础设施对经济增长的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2020.02.009
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发表时间：
2020-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lee Paul Tae-Woo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Chao;Lim Ming K.;Zhang Xinyi;Zhao Longfeng;Lee Paul Tae-Woo
中国的“一带一路”倡议（BRI）是历史上最雄心勃勃的基础设施投资努力之一，代表着刺激亚洲，欧洲和非洲区域经济增长的巨大潜力。本研究收集了2007年至2016年的跨国面板数据，并调查了交通基础设施（铁路和公路）对“一带一路”国家经济增长的影响。首先，交通基础设施与经济增长的时空特征分析。然后，使用全局Moran's I和局部Moran散点图来检验可能的空间自相关。最后，静态和动态的空间模型被用来实证研究交通基础设施对经济增长的影响，从国家和区域的角度。国家层面的估算结果显示，“一带一路”国家的交通基础设施在促进经济增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。此外，本研究还发现，在地理距离、经济距离、文化距离和制度距离空间权重矩阵中，经济增长的空间溢出效应显著为正，即，“一带一路”沿线国家之间较短的地理距离和经济、文化和制度上的相似性，导致了共同的经济增长。区域一级的估计结果表明，东亚-中亚和独立国家联合体以及南亚的运输基础设施的空间溢出效应是非常负面的。相反，运输基础设施对经济增长的积极空间溢出效应在中欧和东欧最为明显。这表明交通基础设施落后初期存在两极分化效应，交通基础设施成熟后存在扩散效应。这项研究很有价值，因为它考察了交通基础设施对“一带一路”国家经济增长的影响。此外，还提出了两条推动“一带一路”沿线国家区域经济发展的政策建议。
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the most ambitious infrastructure investment efforts in history, representing great potential for stimulating regional economic growth in Asia, Europe and Africa. This study collects cross-country panel data from 2007 to 2016 and investigates the impact of transport infrastructure (railway and road) on the economic growth in the BRI countries. First, a spatial-temporal characteristics analysis of transport infrastructure and economic growth is presented. Then, the global Moran’sIand the local Moran scatterplot are employed to test for possible spatial autocorrelations. Finally, both static and dynamic spatial models are utilized to empirically examine the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth from the national and regional perspectives. The estimation results at the national level reveal that the transport infrastructure in the BRI countries plays an essential role in facilitating economic growth. Moreover, this study finds significantly positive spatial spillover effects of economic growth in the categories of geographical distance, economic distance, cultural distance, and institutional distance spatial weight matrices, i.e., shorter geographical distances and economic, cultural and institutional similarities among the BRI countries lead to mutual economic growth. The estimation results at the regional level indicate that the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure are significantly negative in East Asia-Central Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States and in South Asia. On the contrary, the positive spatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure on economic growth is most pronounced in Central and Eastern Europe. This indicates the polarization effect in the initial stage of the lagging transport infrastructure and the diffusion effects after the transport infrastructure is mature. This study is valuable because it examines the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth in the BRI countries. In addition, two policy suggestions for driving the regional economy in the BRI countries are given.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
A. Berry;J. Durand
通讯作者：
A. Berry;J. Durand
DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2018.08.001
发表时间：
2018-11
期刊：
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
影响因子：
--
作者：
Dong Yang;Liping Jiang;A. Ng
通讯作者：
Dong Yang;Liping Jiang;A. Ng
中国景观城市化和经济增长：积极的反馈和可持续性困境。
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Bai, Xuemei;Chen, Jing;Shi, Peijun
通讯作者：
Shi, Peijun
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Thai‐Ha Le
通讯作者：
Thai‐Ha Le
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
P. Lee;Zhi-Hua Hu;Sangjeong Lee;Kyoung-Suk Choi;Sung-Ho Shin
通讯作者：
P. Lee;Zhi-Hua Hu;Sangjeong Lee;Kyoung-Suk Choi;Sung-Ho Shin