Measuring small-area violent crime: a comparison of observed versus model-estimated crime rates and preterm birth.
Measuring small-area violent crime: a comparison of observed versus model-estimated crime rates and preterm birth.
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测量小区域暴力犯罪：观察到的与模型估计的犯罪率和早产的比较。
DOI：
10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.11.008
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Haley DF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gobaud AN;Kramer MR;Stearns ER;Haley DF
由于缺乏可靠的小区域（如人口普查区或人口普查街区组）犯罪数据，对犯罪与健康结果之间关系的研究受到阻碍。我们的目标是评估的准确性，综合估计的犯罪指数用于健康研究，早产作为一个案例研究。我们使用了格鲁吉亚亚特兰大市15个县的47个执法机构报告的暴力犯罪数据，并将其与同年的商业估计犯罪率进行了比较，以评估（1）两种犯罪指标之间的相关性;以及（2）暴力犯罪率指数和早产（PTB）之间的关联是否随犯罪来源指数的变化而变化。为了评估暴力犯罪和肺结核之间的关联，我们使用了多水平逻辑回归，并控制了潜在的个人和社区水平的混杂因素。暴力犯罪，估计和观察到的，与贫困，邻里比例黑色，和NDI呈正相关，但使用估计的比率相比，观察到的犯罪率的关联更强。经过协变量调整后，在两个犯罪指数中，只有白色妇女生活在高暴力犯罪率社区与早产之间的关联是一致的。对于黑人妇女来说，当使用估计的犯罪率时，所有模型都系统地低估了生活在高暴力犯罪社区和PTB之间的关联。有证据表明，模型估计的犯罪率是不可靠的代理犯罪在城市地区，即使适当的混杂因素进行了调整。
Research examining the association between crime and health outcomes has been hampered by a lack of reliable small-area (e.g. census tract or census block-group) crime data. Our objective is to assess the accuracy of synthetically estimated crime indices for use in health research by using preterm birth as a case study. We used violent crime data reported by 47 law enforcement agencies in 15 counties in Atlanta, Georgia and compared them with commercially estimated crime rates from the same year to assess (1) how two measures of crime were correlated; and (2) if the associations between violent crime rate indices and preterm birth (PTB) varied as a function of the source of crime index. To assess the association between violent crime and PTB, we used multilevel logistic regression and controlled for potential individual and neighborhood-level confounders. Violent crime, both estimated and observed, was positively correlated with poverty, neighborhood proportion Black, and NDI, however the association was stronger using estimated rates as compared to observed crime rates. The association between living in a high violent crime neighborhood and pre-term birth was only consistent for white women across the two crime indices after covariate adjustment. For Black women, the association between living in a high violent crime neighborhood and PTB is systematically underestimated across all models when the estimated crime rate is used. There is evidence that model-estimated crime rates are not reliable proxies for crime in an urban area even when appropriate confounders are adjusted for.
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