Agent-based modeling and simulations of land-use and land-cover change according to ant colony optimization: a case study of the Erhai Lake Basin, China

Agent-based modeling and simulations of land-use and land-cover change according to ant colony optimization: a case study of the Erhai Lake Basin, China
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基于蚁群优化的土地利用和土地覆盖变化建模与模拟:以中国洱海流域为例

DOI:
10.1007/s11069-014-1303-4
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发表时间:
2014
期刊:
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
王桂林
王桂林
中科院分区:
工程技术3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
许泉立;杨昆;杨玉莲;王桂林

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社会经济的快速发展和城市化进程改变了洱海流域的土地利用结构和生态服务功能,最终导致整个区域农业和城市非点源污染的产生和加剧。因此,必须研究人类活动与土地利用/土地覆盖变化(LUCC)之间的关系,以支持合理的土地规划和土地利用的科学决策。本文将地理信息系统技术与蚁群优化人工智能算法相结合进行空间分析。此外,本研究应用基于Agent的建模方法,建立了一个有效模拟流域土地利用动态变化的LUCC时空过程模型。首先,选择和评估动态土地利用变化的影响因素。在此基础上,建立了土地利用/覆被变化过程中的主体类及其规则。采用Java编程语言进行程序设计,并基于Repast建模平台实现模型。最后对模型进行了验证,并对仿真结果进行了分析和讨论。通过试验得出了一些结论,并提出了一些土地利用政策建议。
The land-use structure and ecological service functions of the Erhai Lake Watershed are being altered by rapid socioeconomic development and urbanization, which will ultimately lead to the generation and aggravation of agricultural and urban non-point source pollution over the entire region. Therefore, the relationships between human activities and land-use/land-cover changes (LUCCs) must be studied to support scientific decisions regarding reasonable land planning and land use. This paper combines geographic information system technology for spatial analysis and the ant colony optimization artificial intelligence algorithm. Moreover, this study applies agent-based modeling to establish a spatiotemporal process model for LUCCs that effectively simulates the dynamic land-use changes in the basin. A selection is first made and evaluated for dynamic land-use change impact factors. Then, the agent classes and their rules in the LUCC processes are established. The program is designed using the Java programming language, and the model is implemented based on the Repast modeling platform. Finally, the models are validated, and the simulated results are analyzed and discussed. Some conclusions were drawn from the experiments, as well as some policies on land use were suggested.
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