Spatio-temporal model to estimate life expectancy and to detect unusual trends at the local authority level in England.
Spatio-temporal model to estimate life expectancy and to detect unusual trends at the local authority level in England.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmjopen-2020-036855
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发表时间：
2020-11-12
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Blangiardo M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boulieri A;Blangiardo M
估计地方当局一级的预期寿命，并查明在考虑到贫困因素后预期寿命很低的地区。我们使用了国家统计局关于英格兰死亡率和人口的登记数据，按地方当局，年龄组和社会经济贫困十分位数，2001-2018年期间男性和女性。我们使用贝叶斯框架内的统计模型来产生稳健的死亡率，然后将其转换为预期寿命估计值。一项基于贫困概率的规则被用来检测2012年以来贫困程度相似的地区中预期寿命较低的地方当局。我们证实了先前的研究结果，即2012年至2018年最贫困地区和最贫困地区之间的预期寿命差距存在差异。我们发现，地方当局的预期寿命趋势存在差异，与其他类似贫困水平的人相比，我们发现了一些预期寿命较低的人。在某些地方当局，除了贫困之外，还有其他因素造成预期寿命低。对检测到的地区进行进一步调查可以帮助更好地了解自2012年以来观察到的预期寿命停滞，并制定有效的公共卫生政策。
To estimate life expectancy at the local authority level and detect those areas that have a substantially low life expectancy after accounting for deprivation. We used registration data from the Office for National Statistics on mortality and population in England, by local authority, age group and socioeconomic deprivation decile, for both men and women over the period 2001–2018. We used a statistical model within the Bayesian framework to produce robust mortality rates, which were then transformed to life expectancy estimates. A rule based on exceedance probabilities was used to detect local authorities characterised by a low life expectancy among areas with a similar deprivation level from 2012 onwards. We confirmed previous findings showing differences in the life expectancy gap between the most and least deprived areas from 2012 to 2018. We found variations in life expectancy trends across local authorities, and we detected a number of those with a low life expectancy when compared with others of a similar deprivation level. There are factors other than deprivation that are responsible for low life expectancy in certain local authorities. Further investigation on the detected areas can help understand better the stalling of life expectancy which was observed from 2012 onwards and plan efficient public health policies.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.j3310
发表时间：
2017-07-26
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Barr B;Higgerson J;Whitehead M
通讯作者：
Whitehead M
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Hiam, Lucinda;Harrison, Dominic;Dorling, Danny
通讯作者：
Dorling, Danny
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Ribeiro, Ana Isabel;Krainski, Elias Teixeira;de Pina, Maria de Fatima
通讯作者：
de Pina, Maria de Fatima
影响因子：
50
作者：
Bennett, James E.;Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan;Ezzati, Majid
通讯作者：
Ezzati, Majid
影响因子：
17.3
作者：
Hiam, Lucinda;Dorling, Danny;McKee, Martin
通讯作者：
McKee, Martin