Inductive Reasoning and Judgment Interference: Experiments on Simpson’s Paradox
Inductive Reasoning and Judgment Interference: Experiments on Simpson’s Paradox
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归纳推理与判断干扰：辛普森悖论的实验
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Stefanie Nickel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Fiedler;E. Walther;Peter Freytag;Stefanie Nickel
在一系列关于归纳推理的实验中，参与者在类似辛普森悖论的情况下评估了性别、成功和一个协变量之间的关系：尽管总体统计显示女性的成功程度不如男性，但实际上她们在两所大学中的任何一所都比男性表现得更好。理解这种三变量关系需要类似于协方差分析的认知程序。然而，在前五个实验中，参与者将女性在总体水平上的劣势概括为对协变量的不同水平的判断，即使动机很高，并且激活了适当的心理模型。剩下的三个实验表明，当协变量的显着性增加时，当性别的显着性降低时，通过加入消除协变量因果状态歧义的时间线索，辛普森悖论可以被掌握。
In a series of experiments on inductive reasoning, participants assessed the relationship between gender, success, and a covariate in a situation akin to Simpson’s paradox: Although women were less successful then men according to overall statistics, they actually fared better then men at either of two universities. Understanding trivariate relationships of this kind requires cognitive routines similar to analysis of covariance. Across the first five experiments, however, participants generalized the disadvantage of women at the aggregate level to judgments referring to the different levels of the covariate, even when motivation was high and appropriate mental models were activated. The remaining three experiments demonstrated that Simpson’s paradox could be mastered when the salience of the covariate was increased and when the salience of gender was decreased by the inclusion of temporal cues that disambiguate the causal status of the covariate.
面对否定时维持刻板印象：为细分异常者构建基础。
影响因子：
7.6
作者：
Kunda,Z;Oleson,KC
通讯作者：
Oleson,KC