Shoot, shovel and shut up: cryptic poaching slows restoration of a large carnivore in Europe.
Shoot, shovel and shut up: cryptic poaching slows restoration of a large carnivore in Europe.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2011.1275
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发表时间：
2012-03-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Sand H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liberg O;Chapron G;Wabakken P;Pedersen HC;Hobbs NT;Sand H
偷猎是一个普遍存在的问题，对许多受威胁物种的保护也是一个很好的问题。由于偷猎是非法的，偷猎者有很强的动机隐瞒他们的活动，因此，关于偷猎对种群动态影响的数据很少。在制定濒危物种保护计划时，量化偷猎死亡率应该是一个必要的知识，但受到方法学挑战的阻碍。我们表明，严格的估计偷猎的影响相对于其他来源的死亡率可以得到一个分层的状态空间模型结合多个数据源。以斯堪的纳维亚狼（Canis lupus）种群为例，我们发现偷猎约占总死亡率的一半，超过三分之二的偷猎总量仍未被传统方法发现，这是我们称之为“神秘偷猎”的死亡率来源。我们的模拟表明，如果没有过去十年的偷猎，2009年的种群数量将是现在的四倍。偷猎对种群恢复的这种严重影响可能在大型食肉动物中普遍存在。我们认为，大型食肉动物的保护策略，只考虑观察到的数据可能是不够的，应该修改包括和量化神秘偷猎。
Poaching is a widespread and well-appreciated problem for the conservation of many threatened species. Because poaching is illegal, there is strong incentive for poachers to conceal their activities, and consequently, little data on the effects of poaching on population dynamics are available. Quantifying poaching mortality should be a required knowledge when developing conservation plans for endangered species but is hampered by methodological challenges. We show that rigorous estimates of the effects of poaching relative to other sources of mortality can be obtained with a hierarchical state–space model combined with multiple sources of data. Using the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population as an illustrative example, we show that poaching accounted for approximately half of total mortality and more than two-thirds of total poaching remained undetected by conventional methods, a source of mortality we term as ‘cryptic poaching’. Our simulations suggest that without poaching during the past decade, the population would have been almost four times as large in 2009. Such a severe impact of poaching on population recovery may be widespread among large carnivores. We believe that conservation strategies for large carnivores considering only observed data may not be adequate and should be revised by including and quantifying cryptic poaching.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Agnew DJ;Pearce J;Pramod G;Peatman T;Watson R;Beddington JR;Pitcher TJ
通讯作者：
Pitcher TJ
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
5
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影响因子：
16.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
Milner-Gulland, Eleanor J.