Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles
Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles
复制标题
气候模型集合的模型响应和内部变异性的相互比较
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-017-3914-4
复制
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
A. Ganguly
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Devashish Kumar;A. Ganguly
在近期规划期内（0-30年）确定区域尺度上的气候不确定性特征对于气候适应至关重要。气候内部变率（CIV）在利益相关者尺度（区域到地方）的年代际预测范围内主导气候不确定性。在文献中，CIV的特征是间接使用多模式组合（MME）的气候变化预估，而不是直接使用多初始条件组合（MICE）的预估，主要是因为没有足够数量的初始条件（IC）运行可用于任何气候模式。尽管如此，最近从一个气候模式获得的大量IC运行，首次允许直接从气候模式预估中表征CIV，并进行敏感性分析，以研究CIV与模式响应变率（MRV）相比的主导地位。在这里，我们测量了MME和MICE之间的相对一致性（一个无量纲的数字，取值范围在0到1之间，包括；高值表明变异性较小，反之亦然），并发现在降水和温度的所有预测时间范围和空间分辨率下，CIV低于MRV。然而，在高纬度地区，CIV在季节性和年平均降水方面表现出比MRV更大的优势，在高纬度地区，气候变化的信号预计会更快出现。此外，与mme相比，在MICE的全球到大陆、区域或地方尺度上，降水表现出很大的不确定性和相对一致性的快速下降。由于CIV引起的不确定性的分数贡献对降水是不变的，对温度的贡献随着提前时间的增加而减少。
Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0–30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders’ scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Doug M. Smith;Adam A. Scaife;G. Boer;M. Caian;F. Doblas-Reyes;V. Guemas;E. Hawkins;W. Hazeleger;L. Hermanson;Chun Kit Ho;M. Ishii;V. Kharin;M. Kimoto;B. Kirtman;J. Lean;D. Matei;W. Merryfield;W. Müller;H. Pohlmann;A. Rosati;B. Wouters;K. Wyser
通讯作者：
Doug M. Smith;Adam A. Scaife;G. Boer;M. Caian;F. Doblas-Reyes;V. Guemas;E. Hawkins;W. Hazeleger;L. Hermanson;Chun Kit Ho;M. Ishii;V. Kharin;M. Kimoto;B. Kirtman;J. Lean;D. Matei;W. Merryfield;W. Müller;H. Pohlmann;A. Rosati;B. Wouters;K. Wyser