Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short Term Effect of Aid on Growth
Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short Term Effect of Aid on Growth
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孵化时计算鸡的数量：援助对生长的短期影响
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1112709
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Rikhil R Bhavnani
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael A. Clemens;S. Radelet;Rikhil R Bhavnani
过去关于援助与增长的研究存在缺陷，因为它通常考察援助总额在短时间内(通常是四年)对增长的影响，而援助的很大一部分不太可能在如此短的时间内影响增长。我们将援助分为三类：(1)紧急和人道主义援助(可能与增长负相关)；(2)仅在很长一段时间内影响增长(如果有的话)的援助，如支持民主、环境、卫生或教育的援助(可能在四年内与增长无关)；(3)看似可能在四年内刺激增长的援助，包括预算和国际收支支持、基础设施投资，以及对农业和工业等生产部门的援助。我们的重点是第三类援助，它约占所有援助流动的53%。我们发现，在四年的时间里，这种“短期影响”的援助与经济增长(回报递减)之间存在积极的因果关系。其影响是巨大的：至少是使用总体援助的研究的两到三倍。即使在保守的高贴现率下，在典型国家，短期影响援助每增加1美元，产出(和收入)的现值也会增加1.64美元。从不同的角度来看，我们发现，对撒哈拉以南非洲的短期影响援助高于平均水平，使那里的人均增长率比平均援助流动实现的增长率高出约0.5个百分点。结果具有很高的统计学意义，经得起一系列苛刻的测试，包括各种规格、内生性结构和对有影响力的观察的处理。基本结果在很大程度上并不取决于受援国的收入水平或机构和政策的质量；我们发现，无论这些特点如何，短期影响援助平均而言都会带来增长。然而，我们发现一些证据表明，在制度更健全或预期寿命更长(健康状况更好)的国家，这种影响对增长的影响更大。我们还发现，偿债和增长之间存在显著的负相关关系。我们没有就其他类别的援助(例如紧急援助或可能在较长时期内影响增长的援助)对增长的任何额外影响发表声明，也不试图衡量这些影响；四年小组回归不是审查这些关系的适当工具。
Past research on aid and growth is flawed because it typically examines the impact of aggregate aid on growth over a short period, usually four years, while significant portions of aid are unlikely to affect growth in such a brief time. We divide aid into three categories: (1) emergency and humanitarian aid (likely to be negatively correlated with growth); (2) aid that affects growth only over a long period of time, if at all, such as aid to support democracy, the environment, health, or education (likely to have no relationship to growth over four years); and (3) aid that plausibly could stimulate growth in four years, including budget and balance of payments support, investments in infrastructure, and aid for productive sectors such as agriculture and industry. Our focus is on the third group, which accounts for about 53% of all aid flows. We find a positive, causal relationship between this "short-impact" aid and economic growth (with diminishing returns) over a four-year period. The impact is large: at least two-to-three times larger than in studies using aggregate aid. Even at a conservatively high discount rate, at the mean a $1 increase in short-impact aid raises output (and income) by $1.64 in present value in the typical country. From a different perspective, we find that higher-than-average short-impact aid to sub-Saharan Africa raised per capita growth rates there by about half a percentage point over the growth that would have been achieved by average aid flows. The results are highly statistically significant and stand up to a demanding array of tests, including various specifications,endogeneity structures, and treatment of influential observations. The basic result does not depend crucially on a recipient's level of income or quality of institutions and policies; we find that short-impact aid causes growth, on average, regardless of these characteristics. However, we find some evidence that the impact on growth is somewhat larger in countries with stronger institutions or longer life expectancies (better health). We also find a significant negative relationship between debt repayments and growth. We make no statement on, and do not attempt to measure, any additional effect on growth from other categories of aid (e.g., emergency assistance or aid that might affect growth over a longer time period); four-year panel regressions are not an appropriate tool to examine those relationships.
DOI：
10.2307/2534573
发表时间：
1995
期刊：
--
影响因子：
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作者：
J. Sachs;Andrew M. Warner
通讯作者：
J. Sachs;Andrew M. Warner