Linking climate projections to performance: A yield‐based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system
Linking climate projections to performance: A yield‐based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system
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将气候预测与绩效联系起来：大型城市水资源系统基于产量的决策规模评估
DOI：
10.1002/2013wr015156
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
P. Jeffrey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Turner;D. Marlow;M. Ekström;B. Rhodes;Udaya Kularathna;P. Jeffrey
尽管对气候变化对水资源的影响进行了十年的研究，但科学界在将不确定性纳入水资源系统设计方面提供的实用方法论进展相对较少。本文介绍了“决策尺度”方法的应用，用于评估气候变化对水资源系统绩效的影响，并探讨这种方法如何为规划决策提供信息。决策尺度方法通过首先确定迫使规划者进行干预的气候条件，扭转了气候影响评估的传统精神。在该过程结束时引入气候模型预测，以描述气候风险，从而避免通过水文模型传播这些预测的过程。在这里，我们在墨尔本批量供应系统的模型中模拟了 1000 个多站点合成每月水流轨迹，以测试系统性能对水流统计数据变化的敏感性。导出了一种经验关系，将决策关键流量统计数据转换为气候单位，并根据该单位绘制并比较了 138 个替代气候预测。我们根据受多个性能标准约束的系统产量指标来定义决策阈值。我们的方法可以快速、简单地纳入需求预测的不确定性，并通过在大型复杂的水资源系统中成功执行来证明决策缩放方法的影响范围。讨论了城市水资源规划中更广泛应用的范围。
Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the “decision scaling” methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision‐critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Matrosov, Evgenii S.;Woods, Ashley M.;Harou, Julien J.
通讯作者：
Harou, Julien J.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan
通讯作者：
B. Korteling;S. Dessai;Z. Kapelan