Improving External Validity of Epidemiologic Cohort Analyses: A Kernel Weighting Approach.

Improving External Validity of Epidemiologic Cohort Analyses: A Kernel Weighting Approach.
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DOI:
10.1111/rssa.12564
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发表时间:
2020-06
期刊:
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Li Y
Li Y
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Wang L;Graubard BI;Katki HA;Li Y

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由于各种原因,队列研究通常放弃获得总体代表性样本所需的概率抽样。然而,这些队列缺乏人口代表性,这使得仅在队列中可用的新健康因素的人口患病率估计无效。为了提高队列估计的外部有效性,我们提出了一种核加权(KW)方法,该方法使用调查数据作为参考,为队列创建伪权重。对千瓦估计提出了一个折刀方差。在模拟中,KW方法在保持置信区间覆盖率的同时,在均方误差方面优于现有的两种基于倾向分数的加权方法。我们采用所有方法,以美国代表性国家健康访谈调查(NHIS)的样本作为参考,从非代表性美国NIH-AARP队列中估计美国人口死亡率和各种疾病的患病率。假设NHIS的估计是正确的,与现有的基于倾向分数的加权方法相比,KW方法产生的估计偏差通常更小。
For various reasons, cohort studies generally forgo probability sampling required to obtain population representative samples. However, such cohorts lack population-representativeness, which invalidates estimates of population prevalences for novel health factors only available in cohorts. To improve external validity of estimates from cohorts, we propose a kernel weighting (KW) approach that uses survey data as a reference to create pseudo-weights for cohorts. A jackknife variance is proposed for the KW estimates. In simulations, the KW method outperformed two existing propensity-score-based weighting methods in mean-squared error while maintaining confidence interval coverage. We applied all methods to estimating US population mortality and prevalences of various diseases from the non-representative US NIH-AARP cohort, using the sample from US-representative National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) as the reference. Assuming that the NHIS estimates are correct, the KW approach yielded generally less biased estimates compared to the existing propensity-score-based weighting methods.
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