Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.
Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0065459
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Leung B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hyder A;Buckeridge DL;Leung B
建模在减轻季节性流感流行的影响方面发挥着关键作用。复杂的模拟模型目前处于在多个尺度和组织级别上评估最佳缓解策略的最前沿。鉴于其评估作用，这些模型在预测和预报未来流行病方面的能力仍然有限，导致一些研究人员和公共卫生从业人员质疑其实用性。本研究的目的是评估现有的流感传播的复杂模拟模型的预测能力。我们使用了过去流行病的大量数据来证明预测验证的过程。这涉及到推广一个基于个体的流感传播模型，并将其与实验室确认的流感感染数据拟合，这些数据来自单一的观察到的流行病（1998-1999年）。接下来，我们使用拟合模型，并根据真实世界的扰动数据（按年龄组和毒株类型划分的疫苗接种覆盖率）修改了其中两个参数。在这些变化下模拟流行病使我们能够估计在扰动下的预期流行病曲线与1999年至2006年发生的观察到的流行病之间的偏差/误差。该模型能够提前数周预测绝对强度和流行高峰周，具有一定的可靠性，并依赖于静态或动态的预测方法。对流感流行的良好预测能力对于有效和及时地实施缓解战略至关重要。通过应用于当前复杂的流感传播模拟模型的预测验证过程，我们为模型的用户（例如公共卫生官员和政策制定者）提供了量化指标和减轻季节性流感流行影响的实用建议。该方法可应用于其他传染病模型，以测试和潜在地提高其预测能力。
Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive ability.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0906910106
发表时间：
2009-12-22
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Balcan, Duygu;Colizza, Vittoria;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0706849105
发表时间：
2008-03-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Ferguson, Neil M.;Cooley, Philip
通讯作者：
Cooley, Philip
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Hall, I. M.;Gani, R.;Leach, S.
通讯作者：
Leach, S.
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Chan, Emily H.;Tamblyn, Robyn;Buckeridge, David L.
通讯作者：
Buckeridge, David L.
影响因子：
7.8
作者：
Lee, Bruce Y.;Bedford, Virginia L.;Carley, Kathleen M.
通讯作者：
Carley, Kathleen M.