Sensitivity of typhoon modeling to surface waves and rainfall
Sensitivity of typhoon modeling to surface waves and rainfall
复制标题
台风模型对表面波和降雨的敏感性
DOI：
10.1002/2016jc012262
复制
发表时间：
2017-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Liu Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhao Biao;Qiao Fangli;Cavaleri Luigi;Wang Guansuo;Bertotti Luciana;Liu Li
改进热带气旋强度的模拟和预报一直是一个挑战，尽管近年来路径预报有了显著的改进。在这项研究中，我们探讨了台风模拟的敏感性，三个物理过程使用一个完全耦合的大气-海浪模式。两个风暴，一个强，一个弱，已经被选中。波浪破碎引起的海雾，海洋垂直混合与非破碎表面波，和海面冷却由于强降雨的影响进行了评估，通过一组数值实验。结果表明，海雾通过增强海气热通量使台风强度增强，而非破碎波引起的垂直混合和降雨则使台风强度减弱。每个过程都可能是相关的，这取决于风和波浪的条件。当台风与没有充分明确界定的沿海地区（通常是群岛）相互作用时，这些可能会发生巨大变化。与对照运行相比，当考虑所有三个物理过程时，台风海燕的模拟海平面气压与最佳路径数据之间的（绝对）差异从26.05 hPa减小到0.70 hPa，台风杰比的模拟海平面气压与最佳路径数据之间的（绝对）差异从-9.42 hPa减小到-8.67 hPa。我们发现，对台风的规模一直估计过高。我们已经验证了初始条件的极端敏感性，特别是当台风路径的微小差异可能意味着物理过程的不同相关性时，就像我们已经考虑过的那样，控制风暴的演变。
Improving intensity simulation and forecast of tropical cyclones has always been a challenge, although in recent years the track forecasts have been remarkably improved. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of typhoon simulation to three physical processes using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model. Two storms, a strong and a weak one, have been chosen. The effects of wave breaking induced sea spray, ocean vertical mixing associated with nonbreaking surface waves, and sea surface cooling due to intense rainfall are assessed by means of a set of numerical experiments. The results show and confirm that sea spray leads to an increase of typhoon intensity by enhancing the air-sea heat flux, while nonbreaking wave-induced vertical mixing and rainfall lead to a decrease. Each process can be relevant, depending on wind and wave conditions. These can vary dramatically when typhoons interact with not sufficiently well-defined coastal areas, typically an archipelago. Compared with the control runs, when all the three physical processes are considered, the (absolute) difference between the modeled sea level pressure and best track data is reduced from 26.05 to 0.70 hPa for typhoon Haiyan, and from −9.42 to −8.67 hPa for typhoon Jebi. We have found a steady overestimate of the dimensions of the typhoons. We have verified an extreme sensitivity to the initial conditions, especially when small differences in the typhoon track may imply different relevance of the physical processes, like the ones we have considered, governing the evolution of the storm.
登录
查看更多内容
波致垂直混合在K剖面参数化方案中的应用
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Fang, Guohong;Wang, Yonggang;Wei, Zexun;Qiao, Fangli
通讯作者：
Qiao, Fangli
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2008-05
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lian Xie
通讯作者：
Lian Xie
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
T. Tsuda;T. Inoue;S. Kato;S. Fukao;D. Fritts;T. Vanzandt
通讯作者：
T. Tsuda;T. Inoue;S. Kato;S. Fukao;D. Fritts;T. Vanzandt
DOI：
10.5194/gmdd-8-2403-2015
发表时间：
2015-03
期刊：
Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
影响因子：
--
作者：
Li Liu;Rui Li;Cheng Zhang;Geng Yang;Bin Wang-;Li Dong
通讯作者：
Li Liu;Rui Li;Cheng Zhang;Geng Yang;Bin Wang-;Li Dong
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Xiaoping Cheng;Jianfang Fei;Xiaogang Huang;Jing Zheng
通讯作者：
Xiaoping Cheng;Jianfang Fei;Xiaogang Huang;Jing Zheng