Limits to the quantification of local climate change
Limits to the quantification of local climate change
复制标题
当地气候变化量化的局限性
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094018
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Chapman S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chapman S
我们展示了人类活动引起的气候变化的基本时间尺度如何限制了降水变化的社会相关方面的识别。我们表明，它仍然是可以提取，仅从观察，一些有信心的量化评估的变化在某些阈值和位置。这些变化的地图，为各种水文相关的，阈值相关的指标，提出。例如，在苏格兰的一些地方，冬季强降雨日的总降水量增加了50%以上，但只有在某些地方，季节性总降水量才会大幅增加;这是水和土地管理的一个重要区别。这些结果对于气候服务部门提供科学数据十分重要，是用于提供局部尺度预测的模型的基准要求，也是基于过程的气候和影响研究的基准要求，有助于了解天气和全球尺度气候的局部调制。它们是适应规划和科学地提供与当地有关的未来气候信息的重要基础。
We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely from observations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations. Maps of such changes, for a variety of hydrologically-relevant, threshold-dependent metrics, are presented. In places in Scotland, for instance, the total precipitation on heavy rainfall days in winter has increased by more than 50%, but only in some locations has this been accompanied by a substantial increase in total seasonal precipitation; an important distinction for water and land management. These results are important for the presentation of scientific data by climate services, as a benchmark requirement for models which are used to provide projections on local scales, and for process-based climate and impacts research to understand local modulation of synoptic and global scale climate. They are a critical foundation for adaptation planning and for the scientific provision of locally relevant information about future climate.
论气候变化下的气候预测
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
J. Daron;D. Stainforth
通讯作者：
D. Stainforth
社区气候模型模拟的热带降水与热带降雨测量任务卫星测量的热带降水的比较
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Collier;K. Bowman;G. North
通讯作者：
G. North