On predicting climate under climate change
On predicting climate under climate change
复制标题
论气候变化下的气候预测
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
D. Stainforth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Daron;D. Stainforth
今天的全球气候模式集合能在他们自己的“模式世界”中描述21世纪的气候吗？这个问题是我们如何为科学和政策支持设计和解释气候模型实验的核心。使用一个低维的非线性系统，表现出类似的大气和海洋的行为，我们探索的影响合奏大小和两种方法构建气候分布，量化模型的气候。在类似于外部强迫气候变化的非平稳条件下，小合奏被证明是误导的，有时也在反映非强迫气候的情况下的平稳条件下。这些结果表明，可能需要数百名成员的合奏来描述一个模式的气候特征，并提供有关气候预测不确定性的不同来源的相对作用的有力陈述。
Can today’s global climate model ensembles characterize the 21st century climate in their own ‘model-worlds’? This question is at the heart of how we design and interpret climate model experiments for both science and policy support. Using a low-dimensional nonlinear system that exhibits behaviour similar to that of the atmosphere and ocean, we explore the implications of ensemble size and two methods of constructing climatic distributions, for the quantification of a model’s climate. Small ensembles are shown to be misleading in non-stationary conditions analogous to externally forced climate change, and sometimes also in stationary conditions which reflect the case of an unforced climate. These results show that ensembles of several hundred members may be required to characterize a model’s climate and inform robust statements about the relative roles of different sources of climate prediction uncertainty.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough