Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
复制标题
拯救历史天气观测结果可提高严重风暴风险的量化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Joanne Williams
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Hawkins;P. Brohan;S. Burgess;S. Burt;G. Compo;S. Gray;I. Haigh;H. Hersbach;Kiki Kuijjer;O. Martínez‐Alvarado;C. McColl;A. Schurer;L. Slivinski;Joanne Williams
抽象的。数十亿的历史气候学观测仍然存在
科学无法获得，因为它们只存在于纸面上，储存在无数
世界各地的档案馆。将这些数据从纸面数据转换为
数字技术可以改变我们对历史气候变化的理解，
包括极端天气事件。在这里，我们展示了如何拯救这样的
论文观察提高了我们对一场严重风暴的理解
发生在1903年2月，及其重大影响。通过吸收新的
被拯救的大气压力观测，风暴现在是可信的
在对事件的改进的重新分析中得到了代表。在某些地方，这
风暴产生的风比现代时期的任何事件都要强
(1950-2015)而且在任何地方都是最强风的前4名风暴之一
英格兰和威尔士的土地。因此，对严重疾病风险的估计
基于现代时期数据的风暴可能需要修改。检查
风暴的大气结构表明，它是一个经典的
具有“刺痛-急流”前兆的Shapiro-Keyser类型气旋及其相关
已知重大破坏地点和时间的极端大风。比较
有独立的观察和定性的信息，例如
照片和书面陈述，提供了额外的证据
大气重建的可信度，包括分日
降雨变化。由此产生的风暴潮的模拟
风暴显示沿岸有约2.5 米的大涌浪，与
新拯救的验潮仪观测结果，增加了我们对
重建。将历史上救援的天气观测与
现代再分析技术使我们能够可信地重建
100多年前的强烈风暴和相关风暴潮，
建立宝贵的端到端工具来改进风险评估
免受极端天气的影响。
Abstract. Billions of historical climatological observations remain
unavailable to science as they exist only on paper, stored in numerous
archives around the world. The conversion of these data from paper to
digital could transform our understanding of historical climate variations,
including extreme weather events. Here we demonstrate how the rescue of such
paper observations has improved our understanding of a severe windstorm that
occurred in February 1903 and its significant impacts. By assimilating newly
rescued atmospheric pressure observations, the storm is now credibly
represented in an improved reanalysis of the event. In some locations this
storm produced stronger winds than any event during the modern period
(1950–2015) and it is in the top-4 storms for strongest winds anywhere over
land in England and Wales. As a result, estimates of risk from severe
storms, based on modern period data, may need to be revised. Examining the
atmospheric structure of the storm suggests that it is a classic
Shapiro–Keyser-type cyclone with “sting-jet” precursors and associated
extreme winds at locations and times of known significant damage. Comparison
with both independent observations and qualitative information, such as
photographs and written accounts, provides additional evidence of the
credibility of the atmospheric reconstruction, including sub-daily
rainfall variations. Simulations of the storm surge resulting from this
storm show a large coastal surge of around 2.5 m, comparing favourably with
newly rescued tide gauge observations and adding to our confidence in the
reconstruction. Combining historical rescued weather observations with
modern reanalysis techniques has allowed us to plausibly reconstruct a
severe windstorm and associated storm surge from more than 100 years ago,
establishing an invaluable end-to-end tool to improve assessments of risks
from extreme weather.
温带气旋中的刺喷流：回顾
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Clark P
通讯作者：
Clark P
1979 年至 2012 年欧洲极端风暴的 XWS 开放获取目录
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Roberts J
通讯作者：
Roberts J