COVID-19 Epidemic in Sri Lanka: A Mathematical and Computational Modelling Approach to Control.
COVID-19 Epidemic in Sri Lanka: A Mathematical and Computational Modelling Approach to Control.
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DOI：
10.1155/2020/4045064
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jayasinghe S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wickramaarachchi WPTM;Perera SSN;Jayasinghe S
源自中国武汉市的COVID-19疫情持续，对世界人口及全球经济造成重大损害。截至2020年9月7日，它已在全球夺去了80多万人的生命，并有超过2700万人受到感染。斯里兰卡于二零二零年一月下旬报告首例COVID-19病例，为一名中国公民，而首个本地病例于三月第二周确认。自那时起，斯里兰卡政府采取了各种连续措施来改善社交距离，如关闭学校和教育机构，引入在家工作模式以减少公众聚集，对国际游客实施旅行禁令，更严厉的是，实施全岛宵禁，希望尽量减少疾病对斯里兰卡卫生系统和整个社区的负担。据斯里兰卡卫生部称，目前有3123例病例，12人死亡，据报道，2925名患者已经康复出院。在这项研究中，我们使用SEIR概念模型及其修改后的版本，通过将感染患者分为两类：表现出轻微症状的患者和倾向于面临严重呼吸问题并需要在重症监护室接受治疗的患者。我们对反映该国疫情早期阶段的约五个月期间的模型进行数值模拟，主要考虑斯里兰卡情况下COVID-19传播的三个关键参数：控制措施的有效性、海外输入病例率以及有关当局引入社交距离措施的时间。
The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak that originated in the city of Wuhan, China, has caused a significant damage to the world population and the global economy. It has claimed more than 0.8 million lives worldwide, and more than 27 million people have been infected as of 07th September 2020. In Sri Lanka, the first case of COVID-19 was reported late January 2020 which was a Chinese national and the first local case was identified in the second week of March. Since then, the government of Sri Lanka introduced various sequential measures to improve social distancing such as closure of schools and education institutes, introducing work from home model to reduce the public gathering, introducing travel bans to international arrivals, and more drastically, imposed island wide curfew expecting to minimize the burden of the disease to the Sri Lankan health system and the entire community. Currently, there are 3123 cases with 12 fatalities and also, it was reported that 2925 patients have recovered and are discharged from hospitals, according to the Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka. In this study, we use the SEIR conceptual model and its modified version by decomposing infected patients into two classes: patients who show mild symptoms and patients who tend to face severe respiratory problems and are required to be treated in intensive care units. We numerically simulate the models for about a five-month period reflecting the early stage of the epidemic in the country, considering three critical parameters of COVID-19 transmission mainly in the Sri Lankan context: efficacy of control measures, rate of overseas imported cases, and time to introduce social distancing measures by the respective authorities.
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