Evaluating precipitation, streamflow, and inundation forecasting skills during extreme weather events: A case study for an urban watershed
Evaluating precipitation, streamflow, and inundation forecasting skills during extreme weather events: A case study for an urban watershed
复制标题
评估极端天气事件期间的降水、径流和洪水预报技能：城市流域的案例研究
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127126
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Gao, Huilin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Xudong;Rankin, Cheryl;Gangrade, Sudershan;Zhao, Gang;Lander, Kris;Voisin, Nathalie;Shao, Manqing;Morales-Hernández, Mario;Kao, Shih-Chieh;Gao, Huilin
降水、径流和洪泛区淹没的综合预报系统对于减轻极端天气事件造成的破坏性洪水的影响至关重要。然而，从各种定量降水预报(QPF)中得出的径流和洪泛区洪水预报的技能需要更高水平的理解。本研究使用美国国家气象局(NWS)开发的一套QPF来驱动洪水模拟系统，该系统利用基于物理的分布式水文模型、分布式水文土壤与植被模型(DHSVM)和水动力学模型(Triton)的离线耦合而获得。该洪水模拟系统被用于在美国德克萨斯州休斯敦的Brays Bayou分水岭发生三次主要洪水事件期间，在QPF持续时间范围(6-72小时)内生成河流流量和洪水平原淹没图的预报。然后，为了研究QPF持续时间的增加对预报的影响，对降水、径流和滩地洪水的预报技巧进行了量化。结果表明：1)飓风和热带风暴等强度较大、持续时间较短的事件的QPF预报技能高于较短、不太强的事件；2)QPF和径流预报技能随着QPF持续时间的增加而降低，但较长QPF持续时间(24或72小时)的淹没预报技能较高；3)将业务水文模拟中的QPF持续时间从正常情况下的24小时延长到72小时(极端事件)，可能会提高对飓风哈维等大型事件的长期提前预报技能。
Integrated forecasting systems for precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation are of critical importance in mitigating the impacts of destructive floods caused by extreme weather events. However, the skills of streamflow and floodplain inundation forecasts derived from various Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) require a greater level of understanding. In this study, a set of QPF developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) were used to drive a flood modeling system obtained utilizing offline coupling of a physics-based distributed hydrological model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM), and a hydrodynamic model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). This flood modeling system was used to produce forecasts of streamflow and floodplain inundation maps during three major flood events in the Brays Bayou Watershed (Houston, Texas, USA) for a range of QPF durations (6–72 h). Then, to investigate the effects of increasing QPF durations on the forecasts, the forecasting skills of precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation were quantified. The results show that: 1) QPF skills for more intense and sustained events such as hurricanes and tropical storms are higher than for shorter, less intense events; 2) while QPF and streamflow forecasting skills decrease as QPF durations increase, inundation forecasts under longer QPF durations (24 or 72 h) show higher skills; 3) extending the maximum QPF duration in operational hydrologic modeling from 24 h (under normal circumstances) to 72 h (for extreme events) may increase the skills of long lead time forecasts for large-scale events like Hurricane Harvey.
登录
查看更多内容
飓风哈维亮点：需要评估可能最大降水量估算方法的充分性
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
S. Kao;Scott Deneale;D. B. Watson
通讯作者：
D. B. Watson
使用 NOAA/NWS OHRFC 俄亥俄河社区 HEC-RAS 模型进行业务水文预报的结果
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
T. Adams;S. Chen;R. Dymond
通讯作者：
R. Dymond
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Xudong Li;Gang Zhao;J. Nielsen‐Gammon;Joel C. Salazar;M. Wigmosta;Ningning Sun;D. Judi;Huilin Gao-Hu
通讯作者：
Xudong Li;Gang Zhao;J. Nielsen‐Gammon;Joel C. Salazar;M. Wigmosta;Ningning Sun;D. Judi;Huilin Gao-Hu
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
T. M. Carpenter;K. Georgakakos
通讯作者：
T. M. Carpenter;K. Georgakakos
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1984
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
K. Georgakakos;M. Hudlow
通讯作者：
M. Hudlow