Phylodynamic assessment of intervention strategies for the West African Ebola virus outbreak.
Phylodynamic assessment of intervention strategies for the West African Ebola virus outbreak.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-018-03763-2
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发表时间：
2018-06-08
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Lemey P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dellicour S;Baele G;Dudas G;Faria NR;Pybus OG;Suchard MA;Rambaut A;Lemey P
遗传分析为最近西非疫情期间埃博拉病毒的传播提供了重要的见解，但它们对具体干预方案的影响仍不清楚。在这里，我们使用一系列系统动力学方法来解决这个问题。我们的研究表明，长距离传播事件对流行病的扩展并不重要，在大多数情况下，阻止病毒谱系向任何给定行政区域的移动几乎没有影响。然而，主要城市地区在吸引和传播病毒方面至关重要：防止病毒谱系同时向所有三个首都移动，将把流行病规模控制在三分之一以内。我们还表明，在宣布关闭边境之后，对病毒的国际传播产生了重大但短暂的影响。通过量化不同干预策略的假设影响，以及屏障对传播频率的影响，我们的研究说明了系统动力学分析如何有助于解决特定的流行病学和疫情控制问题。在上次西非埃博拉病毒爆发期间，获得了大量病毒基因组数据。在这里，Dellicour等人使用系统动力学方法来评估边境关闭等干预策略的效果。
Genetic analyses have provided important insights into Ebola virus spread during the recent West African outbreak, but their implications for specific intervention scenarios remain unclear. Here, we address this issue using a collection of phylodynamic approaches. We show that long-distance dispersal events were not crucial for epidemic expansion and that preventing viral lineage movement to any given administrative area would, in most cases, have had little impact. However, major urban areas were critical in attracting and disseminating the virus: preventing viral lineage movement to all three capitals simultaneously would have contained epidemic size to one-third. We also show that announcements of border closures were followed by a significant but transient effect on international virus dispersal. By quantifying the hypothetical impact of different intervention strategies, as well as the impact of barriers on dispersal frequency, our study illustrates how phylodynamic analyses can help to address specific epidemiological and outbreak control questions. During the last Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, a large amount of viral genomic data was obtained. Here, Dellicour et al. use phylodynamic approaches to assess effect of intervention strategies such as border closures.
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影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Arias A;Watson SJ;Asogun D;Tobin EA;Lu J;Phan MVT;Jah U;Wadoum REG;Meredith L;Thorne L;Caddy S;Tarawalie A;Langat P;Dudas G;Faria NR;Dellicour S;Kamara A;Kargbo B;Kamara BO;Gevao S;Cooper D;Newport M;Horby P;Dunning J;Sahr F;Brooks T;Simpson AJH;Groppelli E;Liu G;Mulakken N;Rhodes K;Akpablie J;Yoti Z;Lamunu M;Vitto E;Otim P;Owilli C;Boateng I;Okoror L;Omomoh E;Oyakhilome J;Omiunu R;Yemisis I;Adomeh D;Ehikhiametalor S;Akhilomen P;Aire C;Kurth A;Cook N;Baumann J;Gabriel M;Wölfel R;Di Caro A;Carroll MW;Günther S;Redd J;Naidoo D;Pybus OG;Rambaut A;Kellam P;Goodfellow I;Cotten M
通讯作者：
Cotten M
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1411100
发表时间：
2014-10-16
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
WHO Ebola Response Team;Aylward B;Barboza P;Bawo L;Bertherat E;Bilivogui P;Blake I;Brennan R;Briand S;Chakauya JM;Chitala K;Conteh RM;Cori A;Croisier A;Dangou JM;Diallo B;Donnelly CA;Dye C;Eckmanns T;Ferguson NM;Formenty P;Fuhrer C;Fukuda K;Garske T;Gasasira A;Gbanyan S;Graaff P;Heleze E;Jambai A;Jombart T;Kasolo F;Kadiobo AM;Keita S;Kertesz D;Koné M;Lane C;Markoff J;Massaquoi M;Mills H;Mulba JM;Musa E;Myhre J;Nasidi A;Nilles E;Nouvellet P;Nshimirimana D;Nuttall I;Nyenswah T;Olu O;Pendergast S;Perea W;Polonsky J;Riley S;Ronveaux O;Sakoba K;Santhana Gopala Krishnan R;Senga M;Shuaib F;Van Kerkhove MD;Vaz R;Wijekoon Kannangarage N;Yoti Z
通讯作者：
Yoti Z
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Backer JA;Wallinga J
通讯作者：
Wallinga J
DOI：
10.1002/cjs.5550360302
发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
0.6
作者：
Ferreira, Marco A. R.;Suchard, Marc A.
通讯作者：
Suchard, Marc A.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Blackwood JC;Childs LM
通讯作者：
Childs LM