Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system.
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评估气候变化和社会经济变化对恒河系统流量和磷通量的影响。

DOI:
10.1039/c5em00092k
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发表时间:
2015
期刊:
Environmental science. Processes & impacts
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Jin L
Jin L
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
Jin L

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人为气候变化已经并将继续影响世界各地的自然环境和人民。气温上升和降雨模式改变,加上人口变化、土地使用变化和水转移等社会经济因素,将影响河流系统的流量和营养物通量。恒河是世界上最大的河流系统之一,支撑着全球约10%的人口和700多个城市。恒河水系的变化可能对水的供应、水质、水生生境和人民产生重大影响。为了研究这些潜在的变化对恒河的流量和水质,印加磷(INCA-P)模型的多分支版本已被应用到整个河流系统。该模型用于量化2041-2060年和2080-2099年气候变化、人口增长、新增农业用地、污染控制和水转移的影响。研究结果提供了有价值的信息,不同的管理策略对集水水质的潜在影响。
Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041–2060 and 2080–2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.
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