Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts
Bayesian Model Verification of NWP Ensemble Forecasts
复制标题
NWP集合预报的贝叶斯模型验证
DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-11-00350.1
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
D. Majewski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andreas Röpnack;A. Hense;C. Gebhardt;D. Majewski
摘要对流性降水预报具有较大的不确定性。为了考虑允许对流的模式的预报不确定性，德国气象局正在开发一个允许对流的集合预报系统，该系统以水平分辨率为2.8公里的小尺度模拟联盟模式为基础，覆盖整个德国。确定性模型被命名为COSMO-DE。温度和湿度的垂直结构影响对流不稳定的可能性。为了验证垂直模式剖面，使用了无线电探空仪数据。然而，由于观测大气的已知限制，观测状态本身是不确定的。在这项工作中，作者使用了一种概率方法，该方法考虑了观测误差以及模型的不确定性来验证多维状态向量（例如，温度廓线）的COSMO-DE-EPS和两个中尺度合奏水平分辨率为10公里和参数化对流...
AbstractForecasts of convective precipitation have large uncertainties. To consider the forecast uncertainties of convection-permitting models, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km covering all of Germany is being developed by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The deterministic model is named COSMO-DE. Vertical structures of temperature and humidity affect the potential for convective instability. For verification of vertical model profiles, radiosonde data are used. However, the observed state is uncertain by itself because of the well-known limits in observing the atmosphere. In this work the authors use a probabilistic approach, which considers the observation error as well as the model uncertainty to validate multidimensional state vectors (e.g., temperature profiles) of the COSMO-DE-EPS and of two mesoscale ensembles with horizontal resolution of 10 km and parameterized convection...
DOI：
10.1175/2008bams2367.1
发表时间：
2008-10
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
V. Wulfmeyer;A. Behrendt;H. Bauer;C. Kottmeier;U. Corsmeier;A. Blyth;G. Craig;U. Schumann;M. Hagen;S. Crewell;P. Girolamo;C. Flamant;M. Miller;A. Montani;S. Mobbs;E. Richard;M. Rotach;M. Arpagaus;H. Russchenberg;P. Schlüssel;M. König;V. Gärtner;R. Steinacker;M. Dorninger;D. Turner;T. Weckwerth;A. Hense;C. Simmer
通讯作者：
V. Wulfmeyer;A. Behrendt;H. Bauer;C. Kottmeier;U. Corsmeier;A. Blyth;G. Craig;U. Schumann;M. Hagen;S. Crewell;P. Girolamo;C. Flamant;M. Miller;A. Montani;S. Mobbs;E. Richard;M. Rotach;M. Arpagaus;H. Russchenberg;P. Schlüssel;M. König;V. Gärtner;R. Steinacker;M. Dorninger;D. Turner;T. Weckwerth;A. Hense;C. Simmer