Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2020.0456
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发表时间：
2022-01-24
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Peters GP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cain M;Jenkins S;Allen MR;Lynch J;Frame DJ;Macey AH;Peters GP
要实现《巴黎协定》的温度目标，除了实现净零或（净负）二氧化碳（CO2）排放外，还必须限制甲烷（CH 4）引起的变暖。在我们的模型中，对于2020年至2050年之间的中位数1.5°C情景，CH 4减排使温度降低0.1°C; CO2增加0.2°C。二氧化碳排放继续增加全球平均温度，直到达到净零排放，并有可能在净负排放的情况下降低温度。相比之下，减少甲烷排放量在几十年内就开始扭转甲烷引起的变暖。当使用年度“二氧化碳当量”排放量来制定气候缓解措施时，这些差异是隐藏的，包括基于年度总排放率的目标。我们展示了如何准确地汇总对CO2和CH 4排放的不同变暖反应，以通过使用“变暖当量排放”来估计变暖，这提供了一种透明和方便的方法来告知减缓政策和措施，或展示实现温度目标的进展。所提出的方法（GWP*）使用了成熟的气候科学概念，将GWP 100与温度联系起来，作为气候模式的简单替代。与使用标准当量方法相比，在国家自主贡献和长期战略中使用升温当量排放量将提高实现长期温度目标进展情况盘点的透明度。这篇文章是讨论会议议题“甲烷上升：变暖是变暖的饲料吗？”(part两分钟。
Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH4)-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH4 emissions starts to reverse CH4-induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual ‘CO2-equivalent’ emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO2 and CH4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using ‘warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’.
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影响因子：
6.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2010.0349
发表时间：
2011-05-28
影响因子：
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作者：
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