Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain.
Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0076308
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Biesmeijer JC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Polce C;Termansen M;Aguirre-Gutiérrez J;Boatman ND;Budge GE;Crowe A;Garratt MP;Pietravalle S;Potts SG;Ramirez JA;Somerwill KE;Biesmeijer JC
昆虫授粉使世界上四分之三以上的主要作物受益。人们越来越担心，观察到的传粉昆虫减少可能会影响动物授粉作物的产量和收入。因此，了解传粉者的分布对于估计它们对作物授粉的可用性至关重要;然而，一般来说，我们对这些传粉者的分布情况了解不完全。我们提出了一种方法来预测作物授粉服务的地理格局，新颖的两个要素：使用传粉记录，而不是专家知识来预测传粉发生，并包括管理传粉供应。我们整合了最大熵物种分布模型（SDM）与现有的授粉服务模型（PSM），以获得作物授粉传粉者的可用性。我们使用了全国范围内的野生和管理传粉者（蜜蜂）的记录以及英国的农业数据。我们首先校准的SDM蜜蜂和hoverfly作物授粉物种的代表性样本，评估不同的设置对模型性能的影响，并确定最重要的预测因子的能力。不同的预测因子的重要性得到了更好的解决SDM来自简单的功能，蜜蜂和hoverflies一致的结果。然后，我们使用校准模型的物种分布来预测野生和管理传粉者的授粉服务，使用田间菜豆作为测试案例。PSM使我们能够在空间上描述野生和管理授粉者的贡献，并确定可能容易受到低授粉服务提供影响的地区，这有助于指导当地规模的干预措施。这种方法可以扩展到调查作物授粉需求和传粉者的可用性之间的地理不匹配，导致环境变化或政策情景。
Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios.
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Anderson, Robert P.;Gonzalez, Israel, Jr.
通讯作者：
Gonzalez, Israel, Jr.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Garibaldi, Lucas A.;Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf;Klein, Alexandra M.
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Klein, Alexandra M.
影响因子：
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作者：
Blach-Overgaard, Anne;Svenning, Jens-Christian;Balslev, Henrik
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Balslev, Henrik
影响因子：
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作者：
Carvalheiro, Luisa G.;Seymour, Colleen L.;Veldtman, Ruan
通讯作者：
Veldtman, Ruan
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Biesmeijer, J. C.;Roberts, S. P. M.;Kunin, W. E.
通讯作者：
Kunin, W. E.