The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election.
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DOI：
10.1007/s00148-020-00820-3
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Weymouth S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baccini L;Brodeur A;Weymouth S
新冠肺炎疫情对2020年美国总统大选有何影响？在预分析计划的指导下，我们估计了2016年至2020年期间COVID-19病例和死亡对唐纳德·特朗普县级投票变化的影响。为了考虑潜在的混杂因素，我们纳入了大量与covid -19相关的控制以及人口和社会经济变量。此外，我们将病例和死亡人数与肉类加工厂雇用的工人比例进行比较，以加强我们的识别战略。我们发现，新冠肺炎疫情对特朗普的得票率产生了负面影响。估计的影响在城市县、没有“居家令”的州、摇摆州和特朗普在2016年获胜的州最为明显。一个简单的反事实分析表明，如果新冠肺炎病例减少5%，特朗普很可能赢得连任。我们还发现一些证据表明，新冠疫情对选民动员产生了积极影响，帮助拜登赢得了总统大选。
What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a large number of COVID-19-related controls as well as demographic and socioeconomic variables. Moreover, we instrument the numbers of cases and deaths with the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories to sharpen our identification strategy. We find that COVID-19 cases negatively affected Trump’s vote share. The estimated effect appears strongest in urban counties, in states without stay-at-home orders, in swing states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. We also find some evidence that COVID-19 incidence had a positive effect on voters’ mobilization, helping Biden win the presidency.
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影响因子：
6.1
作者：
Bonacini, Luca;Gallo, Giovanni;Patriarca, Fabrizio
通讯作者：
Patriarca, Fabrizio
影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Brodeur, Abel;Cook, Nikolai;Heyes, Anthony
通讯作者：
Heyes, Anthony
影响因子：
5
作者：
KINDER, DR;KIEWIET, DR
通讯作者：
KIEWIET, DR
影响因子：
13.1
作者：
Baker, Scott R.;Farrokhnia, Robert A.;Yannelis, Constantine
通讯作者：
Yannelis, Constantine
DOI：
10.1146/annurev-polisci-031710-103823
发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
ANNUAL REVIEW OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, VOL 15
影响因子：
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作者：
Ashworth, Scott
通讯作者：
Ashworth, Scott