An estimation of the effect of carbon pricing for CO2 mitigation in China’s cement industry
An estimation of the effect of carbon pricing for CO2 mitigation in China’s cement industry
复制标题
碳定价对中国水泥行业二氧化碳减排的影响评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.10.115
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Can Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xianbing Liu;Yongbin Fan;Can Wang
本研究估计了碳定价对中国水泥行业CO2减排的影响。统计数据和预测显示，水泥产量最初经历了加速增长，预计未来几年将趋于平稳。本估计所考虑的节能及减碳技术处于不同的采纳阶段。预计将在10-20年内全面推广技术，到2025年，剩余的技术减缓潜力约为8.8%，到2030年为10.2%。然而，为碳定价的效果有限。与非定价情景相比，在60元/吨和100元/吨CO2的价格下，2015年可能实现990万吨和1290万吨CO2的减排。在两个价格水平下，到2020年碳定价的减排量约为490万吨CO2，到2020年，约70%的减排量可能以50元/吨CO2的边际成本实现。到2030年，近90%的政策减排的边际成本将低于100元/t-CO2。本文证实了迄今为止中国水泥行业节能的指挥和控制方法的有效性，并建议考虑政策互动，尽早引入碳定价机制。
This study estimates the effect of carbon pricing for CO2mitigation in China’s cement industry. The statistics and prediction show that cement production initially experienced accelerated growth and is now expected to plateau out over the next few years. The energy saving and carbon mitigation technologies considered in this estimation are at different adoption stages. Full technology diffusion is expected within 10–20 years, and the remaining technology mitigation potential stands at about 8.8% by 2025 and 10.2% by 2030. Nevertheless, attaching a price to carbon would have a limited effect. Reductions of 9.9 and 12.9 Mt-CO2might have been realised in 2015 under respective prices of 60 and 100 Yuan/t-CO2, compared to a non-pricing scenario. The reduction attributed to carbon pricing would be around 4.9 Mt-CO2in 2020 at both price levels, and around 70% of the mitigation may be at a marginal cost of 50 Yuan/t-CO2by 2020. The marginal cost for nearly 90% of the policy mitigation would be below 100 Yuan/t-CO2by 2030. This paper confirms the effectiveness of a command-and-control approach so far for energy saving in China’s cement industry and advises early introduction of a carbon pricing regime with consideration of policy interactions.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
11.2
作者：
Shaohui Zhang;E. Worrell;Wina Crijns-Graus
通讯作者：
Shaohui Zhang;E. Worrell;Wina Crijns-Graus
影响因子：
9
作者：
Zongguo Wen;Min Chen;Fanxin Meng
通讯作者：
Zongguo Wen;Min Chen;Fanxin Meng
影响因子：
11.2
作者：
H. Mikulčić;M. Vujanovic;N. Duić
通讯作者：
H. Mikulčić;M. Vujanovic;N. Duić
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Yufei Wang;S. Höller;P. Viebahn;Z. Hao
通讯作者：
Yufei Wang;S. Höller;P. Viebahn;Z. Hao
影响因子：
12.8
作者：
Xianbing Liu;C. Wang;Weishi Zhang;Sunhee Suk;Kinichi Sudo
通讯作者：
Xianbing Liu;C. Wang;Weishi Zhang;Sunhee Suk;Kinichi Sudo