Distribution dynamics of regional GDP per employee in unified Germany

Distribution dynamics of regional GDP per employee in unified Germany
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统一德国地区雇员人均GDP分布动态

DOI:
10.1007/s00181-011-0543-3
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发表时间:
2013
影响因子:
3.2
通讯作者:
Klasen
Klasen
中科院分区:
经济学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Vollmer;Holzmann;Ketterer;Klasen

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我们调查了自统一以来德国实现人均生产水平趋同的程度。为此,我们使用双成分正态混合模型对德国各地区的人均GDP分布进行了建模。而在统一后的第一年,两种成分的分布明显分离和双峰分布,分别对应于东德和西德地区,在接下来的几年里,它们开始合并,只表现出一种模式。尽管如此,使用最近开发的对正常混合物中的同质性的EM检验,整个分布只有一个正态成分的假设显然在所有年份都是不成立的。后来的分析显示,2006年,大约三分之一的东德地区被分配给了更富裕的部分,从而赶上了西德的水平。迁移区的增长率比初始人均GDP水平相同的非迁移区的增长率高出约1个百分点。
We investigate to what extent convergence in production levels per worker has been achieved in Germany since unification. To this end, we model the distribution of GDP per employee across German districts using two-component normal mixtures. While in the first year after unification, the two-component distributions were clearly separated and bimodal, corresponding to the East and West German districts, respectively, in the following years they started to merge showing only one mode. Still, using the recently developed EM-test for homogeneity in normal mixtures, the hypothesis of just a single normal component for the whole distribution is clearly rejected for all years. A Posterior analysis shows that about a third of the East German districts were assigned to the richer component in 2006, thus catching up to levels of the West. The growth rate of a mover district is about 1% point higher than the growth rate of a non-mover district which had the same initial level of GDP per employee.
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发表时间: 1991-05-01
影响因子: 13.7
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