A co-infection model on TB - COVID-19 with optimal control and sensitivity analysis.
A co-infection model on TB - COVID-19 with optimal control and sensitivity analysis.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.matcom.2022.04.001
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Ghosh, Mini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bandekar, Shraddha Ramdas;Ghosh, Mini
关键词：
2019冠状病毒病已于二零二零年初被世界卫生组织宣布为突发公共卫生事件。从那时起，这种致命的病毒已经夺去了全世界数百万人的生命。在其混乱的传播中，其他几种疾病在治疗和护理方面受到忽视，其中一种慢性疾病是结核病。由于COVID-19病例大幅增加，结核病病例的通报大幅减少，导致全球结核病目标进展逆转。除早前结核病与SARS及MERS-CoV病毒合并感染外，TB-COVID-19合并感染对疾病传播构成严重威胁。所有这些因素都是这一模式发展的主要动力因素。基于这一担忧，本研究开发了一个TB - COVID-19共感染模型，考虑到两种疾病免疫力减弱的可能性。考虑不同的流行病学特征，建立了一个具有11个房室的流行病学模型，并分析了其协动力学性质。对仅TB子模型、仅COVID-19子模型和完整的TB-COVID-19模型进行了详细的稳定性和分叉分析。关键参数，即感染率，免疫力下降，口罩的功效对疾病流行的影响进行了详细讨论。通过对基本再生数的归一化正向敏感性指数和LHS-PRCC方法进行敏感性分析，深入了解各参数在加速和控制疾病传播中的意义。最佳控制分析被广泛提出，包括与及时和改善结核病治疗有关的控制，以及加强COVID-19检测和隔离设施，以遏制这些传染病的传播。从这些分析中得到的模拟结果强调了不同的控制措施在减轻疾病的重要性，并相应地说明。该研究表明，在大流行时期，其他疾病的治疗和护理绝不能忽视，必须采取适当的护理，以避免因合并感染和无法及时治疗而导致的死亡。
COVID-19 had been declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization in the early 2020. Since then, this deadly virus has claimed millions of lives worldwide. Amidst its chaotic spread, several other diseases have faced negligence in terms of treatment and care, of which one such chronic disease is Tuberculosis. Due to huge rise in COVID-19 cases, there had been a drastic decrease in notification of TB cases which resulted in reversal of global TB target progress. Apart from these due to the earlier co-infections of TB with SARS and MERS-CoV viruses, the TB-COVID-19 co-infection posed a severe threat in the spread of the disease. All these factors backed to be major motivation factor in development of this model. Leading with this concern, a TB - COVID-19 co-infection model is developed in this study, considering possibility of waning immunity of both diseases. Considering different epidemiological traits, an epidemiological model with 11 compartments is developed and the co-dynamics is analysed. A detailed stability and bifurcation analysis is performed for the TB only sub-model, COVID-19 only sub-model and the complete TB - COVID-19 model. Impact of key parameters namely, infection rate, waning immunity, and face mask efficacy on disease prevalence is discussed in detail. Sensitivity analysis by means of normalized forward sensitivity index of the basic reproduction number and LHS-PRCC approach is carried to provide a thorough understanding of significance of various parameters in accelerating as well as controlling the disease spread. Optimal control analysis is presented extensively, incorporating controls related to timely and improved TB treatment, and enhanced COVID-19 tests and isolation facilities to curb the spread of these infectious diseases. The simulation results obtained from each of these analyses stress on the importance of different control measures in mitigation of the diseases and are illustrated accordingly. The study suggests that in the times of a pandemic, other disease treatment and care must not be neglected, and adequate care must be taken so that mortality due to co-infection and unavailability of timely treatment can be avoided.
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