Winter pressures on the UK health system dominated by the Greenland Blocking weather regime
Winter pressures on the UK health system dominated by the Greenland Blocking weather regime
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格陵兰阻塞天气给英国卫生系统带来冬季压力
DOI：
10.1016/j.wace.2019.100218
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Charlton-Perez A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Charlton-Perez A
在许多国家，冬季寒冷的天气与健康状况不佳和公共卫生服务面临的巨大压力有关。这项研究探讨了长期气候变化和亚季节变化如何导致极端温度，增加英国国民健康服务的压力。温度对慢性阻塞性肺病死亡率和住院率的影响被用作冬季卫生系统压力的指标。该研究的重点是一年中因寒冷天气导致的死亡率和住院率超过五年重现期的天数。这些日子此后被称为冬季压力日，因为它们可能导致对卫生服务的巨大压力，以满足需求。在年代际和更长的时间尺度上，冬季压力日数在最近几十年中表现出强劲的下降趋势，从工业化前时期的0.29概率降至2000-2016年期间的0.11概率。在两个不同的气候模式模拟的历史时期和一个反事实的合奏，只有自然气候强迫的冬季压力天的风险进行比较表明，这种下降可以明显归因于人类活动。这两个气候模式冬季气压日的人为活动可归因风险的平均分数为-0.94。在亚季节时间尺度上，通过分析天气状况生命周期的诊断来评估冬季压力日的天气驱动因素。这一分析表明，冬季压力日几乎完全发生在格陵兰阻塞制度。虽然冬季压力日的风险可能会随着当前的气候趋势继续下降，但英国卫生系统仍面临重大的天气风险。为对系统造成压力的天气事件做准备时，应侧重于每周时间尺度上的格陵兰阻塞状态的分析和预测。
In many countries, wintertime cold weather is linked to ill-health and intense pressure on public health services. This study examines how both long-term climate change and sub-seasonal variability contribute to the temperature extremes that increase pressures on the UK's National Health Service. The impact of temperature on fractional mortality and hospital admissions due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are used as metrics of wintertime pressure on the health system. The focus of the study is on days during the year in which the fractional mortality and hospital admissions attributable to cold weather exceed the five-year return period. These days are henceforth called winter pressure days since they likely to lead to significant pressure on the health service to meet demand. On interdecadal and longer timescales, winter pressure days show a robust decline over recent decades with a reduction from a probability of 0.29 in the pre-industrial period to 0.11 for the period 2000–2016. Comparing the risk of winter pressure days in two different climate model simulations of the historical period and a counterfactual ensemble of only natural climate forcings shows that this decline can be clearly attributed to anthropogenic activity. The average Fraction of Attributable risk due to anthropogenic activity for these two climate models for winter pressure days is −0.94. On sub-seasonal timescales, weather drivers of winter pressure days are assessed through analysis of diagnostics of weather regime lifecycles. This analysis shows winter pressure days occur almost exclusively in the Greenland Blocking regime. Although the risk of winter pressure days is likely to continue to decline with current climate trends, there remains a substantial weather driven risk to the UK health system. Preparing for weather events that cause stress on the system should focus on the analysis and prediction of the Greenland Blocking regime on weekly timescales.
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影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Gilleland, Eric;Katz, Richard W.
通讯作者：
Katz, Richard W.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough
DOI：
10.1080/16000870.2017.1327765
发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Mauritzen;T. Živković;Vidyunmala Veldore
通讯作者：
C. Mauritzen;T. Živković;Vidyunmala Veldore
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Vanessa Saliba
通讯作者：
Vanessa Saliba
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Hajat, S.;Chalabi, Z.;Mays, N.
通讯作者：
Mays, N.