Development, calibration, and validation of a U.S. white male population-based simulation model of esophageal adenocarcinoma.
Development, calibration, and validation of a U.S. white male population-based simulation model of esophageal adenocarcinoma.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0009483
复制
发表时间：
2010-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Kong CY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hur C;Hayeck TJ;Yeh JM;Richards EM;Spechler SJ;Gazelle GS;Kong CY
食管腺癌（EAC）的发病率在美国和西方世界迅速上升。这项研究的目的是开始调查这种快速上升的发展，校准和验证EAC的数学疾病模拟模型，使用现有的流行病学数据。该模型代表了EAC的自然史，包括从正常粘膜到检测到癌症的基本生物健康状态。通过校准估计健康状态之间的进展率，校准确定了产生符合流行病学数据的模型输出的不同参数集;具体而言，来自已发表文献和监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据的癌前病变患病率和EAC癌症发病率。作为临床和政策应用的说明性示例，校准和验证的模型回顾性地分析了阿司匹林化学预防计划的潜在益处。模型结果近似校准目标，模型的拟合和验证的结果。如果所有的白色男性在1965年40岁时开始阿司匹林化学预防，大约7,000例EAC可以在30年内预防。该模型作为未来分析的基础，以确定具有成本效益的筛查和管理策略，以预防EAC发病率和死亡率。
The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen rapidly in the U.S. and western world. The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data. The model represents the natural history of EAC, including the essential biologic health states from normal mucosa to detected cancer. Progression rates between health states were estimated via calibration, which identified distinct parameter sets producing model outputs that fit epidemiologic data; specifically, the prevalence of pre-cancerous lesions and EAC cancer incidence from the published literature and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. As an illustrative example of a clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively analyzed the potential benefit of an aspirin chemoprevention program. Model outcomes approximated calibration targets; results of the model's fit and validation are presented. Approximately 7,000 cases of EAC could have been prevented over a 30-year period if all white males started aspirin chemoprevention at age 40 in 1965. The model serves as the foundation for future analyses to determine a cost-effective screening and management strategy to prevent EAC morbidity and mortality.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
6.2
作者：
Chak, Amitabh;Faulx, Ashley;Falk, Gary
通讯作者：
Falk, Gary
影响因子：
39.2
作者：
Inadomi, JM;Sampliner, R;Vakil, N
通讯作者：
Vakil, N
DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djh039
发表时间：
2004-02-18
期刊：
JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hur, C;Nishioka, NS;Gazelle, GS
通讯作者：
Gazelle, GS
影响因子：
7.6
作者：
Diaz-Rubio, M;Moreno-Elola-Olaso, C;Rodriguez-Artalejo, F
通讯作者：
Rodriguez-Artalejo, F
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
GUANREI, Y;SONGLIANG, Q;GUIZEN, F
通讯作者：
GUIZEN, F