Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.
Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0087291
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Rebelo H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amorim F;Carvalho SB;Honrado J;Rebelo H
在这里，我们开发了一个框架来设计多物种监测网络，使用物种分布模型和保护规划工具来优化监测站的位置，以检测由气候变化驱动的潜在范围变化。在这项研究中，我们集中在七个蝙蝠物种在北方葡萄牙（西欧）。最大熵模型被用来预测这些物种在目前和未来气候条件下的可能出现情况。通过比较现在和未来的预测分布，我们确定了每个物种可能获得，失去或保持合适的气候空间的地区。然后，我们使用的决策支持工具（马克思软件）设计三个优化的监测网络考虑：a）物种可能发生的变化，B）物种保护状况，和c）志愿者的承诺水平。就目前的气候条件而言，物种分布模式显示，适合大多数物种生长的地区位于该区域的东北部。然而，预测未来气候适宜的地区向西转移。三个模拟监测网络，适应一个不可预测的志愿者承诺，包括28，54和110个采样点，分别分布在整个研究区域，涵盖了潜在的各种条件下，物种范围可能发生变化。我们的研究结果表明，我们的框架优于传统的方法，只考虑当前的物种范围，在分配监测站分布在不同类别的预测变化的物种分布。这项研究提出了一个简单的框架，以设计监测计划，专门针对测试假设的物种范围可能会随着气候变化而变化，同时也确保监测一般人口趋势。
Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.
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影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Araújo, MB;Cabeza, M;Williams, PH
通讯作者：
Williams, PH
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Butchart, Stuart H. M.;Walpole, Matt;Watson, Reg
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
10.3
作者：
Cannone, Nicolem;Sgorbati, Sergio;Guglielmin, Mauro
通讯作者：
Guglielmin, Mauro
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1276
发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hijmans, RJ;Cameron, SE;Jarvis, A
通讯作者：
Jarvis, A