Modelling the long-run learning impact of the Covid-19 learning shock: Actions to (more than) mitigate loss.
Modelling the long-run learning impact of the Covid-19 learning shock: Actions to (more than) mitigate loss.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijedudev.2020.102326
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Kaffenberger M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaffenberger M
本文使用经过校准的“教育生产函数”模型，估算因新型冠状病毒疫情相关学校关闭的暂时冲击而对儿童学习造成的潜在长期损失。然后，它模拟了两种缓解策略可能带来的收益。如果不采取补救措施，孩子们可能会因为学校关闭三个月而损失超过一整年的学习时间，因为当他们重新入学时，他们将落后于课程，而且随着时间的推移，他们将进一步落后。当孩子们重返学校时，补救措施将长期学习损失减少一半，但仍然会让孩子们落后半年以上，而他们本来不会受到冲击。补救措施与长期的课程重新定位相结合，以与儿童的学习水平保持一致，充分减轻了由于冲击而造成的长期学习损失，并超过了无冲击反事实中的学习超过一整年的学习价值。各系统需要从现在起开始规划补救方案，在规划时，它们应制定方案并培训教师，以便在重新开放后的一段时间内继续产生效益。
This paper uses a calibrated “pedagogical production function” model to estimate the potential long-term losses to children’s learning from the temporary shock of Covid-19 related school closures. It then models possible gains from two mitigation strategies. Without mitigation, children could lose more than a full year’s worth of learning from a three-month school closure because they will be behind the curriculum when they re-enter school and will fall further behind as time goes on. Remediation when children return to school reduces the long-term learning loss by half, but still leaves children more than half a year behind where they would have been with no shock. Remediation combined with long-term reorientation of curriculum to align with children’s learning levels fully mitigates the long-term learning loss due to the shock and surpasses the learning in the counterfactual of no shock by more than a full year’s worth of learning. Systems need to begin planning now for remediation programmes, and as they do so they should build programmes and train teachers in ways that can continue to produce benefits beyond the period immediately following reopening.
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